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Almagro v Chacarita Juniors

Almagro

2–1Full time

Chacarita Juniors

Primera Nacional · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Tres de Febrero

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 22:01

Almagro 2–1 Chacarita Juniors ALMAGRO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Almagro win~~39%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.557

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.628

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 40 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Almagro win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Almagro was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–32–28
15′15′ and it is 1–0: J. Marchioni on the scoresheet for Almagro. 1–0 · 73–19–8
25′Chacarita Juniors ahead on 22′ through A. Dominguez. 1–1. 1–1 · 36–39–26
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 36% now
45′SECOND HALF Almagro 1–1 Chacarita Juniors
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Almagro · On: J. Bustos · Off: F. Bustamante
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Almagro · On: J. Orlando · Off: T. Macies
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Almagro win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Chacarita Juniors · On: M. Sanabria · Off: M. Melendez Corrected
72′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Chacarita Juniors
73′⚽ GOAL · 74' Almagro 1–1 Chacarita Juniors
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Almagro 2–1 Chacarita Juniors · A. Dominguez
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Chacarita Juniors · On: F. Cristaldo · Off: M. Cuero Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Chacarita Juniors · On: L. Alfonzo · Off: S. Acosta
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Chacarita Juniors · On: F. Facello · Off: A. Cuello
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Almagro · On: P. Blanco · Off: F. De La Vega
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Almagro · On: J. Flores · Off: E. Silcan
87′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Chacarita Juniors
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Chacarita Juniors
FTFULL TIME Almagro 2–1 Chacarita Juniors
FTAlmagro 2–1 Chacarita Juniors · Almagro win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Almagro win39%

Draw34%

Chacarita Juniors win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:30

Venue · Estadio Tres de Febrero

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Almagro

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Gonzalez

4 G. Asis

2 S. Chamorro

6 B. Negro

3 E. Silcan

5 J. Vitale

8 E. Martinez

7 J. Marchioni

11 T. Macies

10 F. Bustamante

9 F. De La Vega

Coach · Carlos Mayor

Substitutes

12 · S. Anchoverri

13 · M. Cortave

14 · J. Flores

15 · P. Blanco

16 · U. Villalobos

17 · J. Fernandes

18 · J. Bustos

19 · J. Orlando

20 · C. Salto

Chacarita Juniors

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Losas

4 M. Leyendeker

2 S. Acosta

6 N. Pantaleone

3 N. Chaves

5 T. Perez

7 M. Melendez

10 C. Guanca

8 A. Cuello

11 M. Cuero

9 A. Dominguez

Coach · Sergio Rondina

Substitutes

12 · G. Fernandez

13 · T. Migliore

14 · D. Duran

15 · L. Perdomo

16 · F. Facello

17 · L. Alfonzo

18 · M. Sanabria

19 · F. Cristaldo

20 · T. Zarate

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Almagro

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Gonzalez

4 G. Asis

2 S. Chamorro

6 B. Negro

3 E. Silcan

5 J. Vitale

8 E. Martinez

7 J. Marchioni

11 T. Macies

10 F. Bustamante

9 F. De La Vega

Coach · Carlos Mayor

Substitutes

12 · S. Anchoverri

13 · M. Cortave

14 · J. Flores

15 · P. Blanco

16 · U. Villalobos

17 · J. Fernandes

18 · J. Bustos

19 · J. Orlando

20 · C. Salto

Chacarita Juniors

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Losas

4 M. Leyendeker

2 S. Acosta

6 N. Pantaleone

3 N. Chaves

5 T. Perez

7 M. Melendez

10 C. Guanca

8 A. Cuello

11 M. Cuero

9 A. Dominguez

Coach · Sergio Rondina

Substitutes

12 · G. Fernandez

13 · T. Migliore

14 · D. Duran

15 · L. Perdomo

16 · F. Facello

17 · L. Alfonzo

18 · M. Sanabria

19 · F. Cristaldo

20 · T. Zarate

Our number · almagro winPublished 10 Oct 19:30

39% The market35%

Us39%

~~Market~~35%

We make Almagro a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · almagro win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 35% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Almagro win	39%	35%	+4
Draw	34%	33%	+1
Chacarita Juniors win	27%	32%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	30%	34%	−4
Both teams to score	38%	43%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	58%	59%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	13%	17%	−4
Almagro or draw	73%	68%	+5
Almagro clean sheet	44%	–	–
Chacarita Juniors clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.3%

0123450 16.3 11.3 5.2 1 14.7 14.3 5.5 2 8.5 7.0 2.9 3 3.1 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Almagro down, Chacarita Juniors across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,892 Primera Nacional matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.6% of games this season, across 576 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Almagro at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Chacarita Juniors away: 0.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Almagro, 0.84 for Chacarita Juniors. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~CHA 1–0 ALM · ALM 1–3 CHA

Form · last six in Primera Nacional

ALMAGRO

WLDLLW1–0 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–1

CHACARITA JUNIORS

LLLWLW0–1 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	32	+9	61
2	Deportivo Moron	32	+19	58
3	Tristan Suarez	32	+17	58
4	Godoy Cruz	32	+13	56
5	Temperley	32	+12	56
6	Atlanta	32	+8	55
7	Gimnasia Jujuy	32	+8	54
8	Deportivo Madryn	32	+18	53
9	Colon Santa Fe	32	+14	52
10	Midland	32	+8	48
11	Gimnasia Y Tiro	32	+4	48
12	Deportivo Maipu	32	+8	47
13	Almirante Brown	32	+4	46
14	Colegiales	32	+1	46
15	San Martin S.J.	32	+2	45
16	CA Estudiantes	32	+2	45
17	Ciudad de Bolívar	32	−1	45
18	San Martin Tucuman	32	+3	43
19	Atletico DE Rafaela	32	−3	42
20	Los Andes	32	+2	40
21	Quilmes	32	+3	39
22	Almagro	32	−10	38
23	Chaco For Ever	32	−3	37
24	Defensores De Belgrano	32	−4	37
25	San Telmo	32	−8	37
26	Agropecuario	32	−9	37
27	Racing Cordoba	32	−10	37
28	Nueva Chicago	32	−7	36
29	Atletico Mitre	32	−10	35
30	Patronato	32	−5	34
31	Chacarita Juniors	32	−9	33
32	Central Norte	32	−9	33
33	All Boys	32	−10	33
34	San Miguel	32	−13	31
35	Acassuso	32	−13	29
36	Club Atlético Güemes	32	−31	23