Agropecuario v Colegiales prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Agropecuario 0–3 Colegiales AGROPECUARIO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Agropecuario win~~44%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.891

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.826

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Agropecuario win at 44%.
1′KICK-OFF Agropecuario v Colegiales
2′Much as we predicted: Agropecuario was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–33–23
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Colegiales
18′We said Agropecuario at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 16%. 0–1 · 16–25–59
18′⚽ GOAL · 18' Agropecuario 0–1 Colegiales
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Agropecuario win: 44% at kick-off, 16% now
18′THE CALL SWINGS · 18' Colegiales win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Agropecuario win 16%)
19′Colegiales score on 18′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 16–25–59
21′19′: R. E. Monserrat on the scoresheet for Colegiales, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 15–25–59
24′We said Agropecuario at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–60
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' Agropecuario win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.0 we expected. 0–1 · 13–25–62
43′We said Agropecuario at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–1 · 9–25–66
45′HALF-TIME Agropecuario 0–1 Colegiales
45′SECOND HALF Agropecuario 0–1 Colegiales
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Agropecuario · On: R. Castro · Off: N. Pereyra
47′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Agropecuario · On: C. Auzqui · Off: D. Ruiz Diaz
48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Colegiales · On: F. Montiel · Off: R. E. Monserrat
50′Colegiales find the net on 49′. 0–2. 0–2 · 1–6–92
50′We said Agropecuario at 44%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 0–2 · 1–6–92
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Agropecuario 0–2 Colegiales
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Agropecuario win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Colegiales
76′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Colegiales
83′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Colegiales · On: N. Toloza · Off: M. Albertengo
83′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Agropecuario · On: B. Blando · Off: M. Ramos
83′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Colegiales · On: F. Zicarelli · Off: L. Castillo
83′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Colegiales · On: L. Juarez · Off: L. Gonzalez
90′Full time, 0–3. We called Agropecuario at 44% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–3 · 0–0–100
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Colegiales · On: M. Mamani · Off: E. Trinidad
94′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 0–3 · 0–0–100
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Agropecuario 0–3 Colegiales
95′A goal for Colegiales on 90′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Agropecuario 0–3 Colegiales
FTAgropecuario 0–3 Colegiales · Agropecuario win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Agropecuario are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Agropecuario 44%, draw 32%, Colegiales 23%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Agropecuario v ColegialesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Agropecuario win44%

Draw32%

Colegiales win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 34

VenueOfelia Rosenzuaig

Line-ups

Agropecuario

Colegiales

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Agropecuario

Colegiales

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Colegiales	33	+1	47
13	Agropecuario	33	−8	40

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Agropecuario

Formation not confirmed

1 L. Acosta

4 F. Sanchez

2 T. Lecanda

6 A. Perez

3 M. Ramos

8 B. Aranda

5 N. Pereyra

10 J. Vega

11 R. Mosqueira

7 D. Ruiz Diaz

9 A. Gagliardi

Coach · Adrian Adrover

Substitutes

12 · G. Salort

13 · D. Actis

14 · E. Aguirre

16 · R. Castro

15 · F. Perez

17 · J. Valdez

18 · C. Auzqui

20 · L. Barrera

19 · B. Blando

Colegiales

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Di Fulvio

4 E. Ocampo

2 F. Rivero

6 E. Insua

3 F. Malagueno

8 L. Gonzalez

5 F. Marin

11 E. Trinidad

7 R. E. Monserrat

9 M. Albertengo

10 L. Castillo

Coach · Leonardo Fernandez

Substitutes

12 · G. Calderari

13 · C. Gaston

14 · F. Miranda

15 · F. Montiel

16 · T. Buenrostro

17 · L. Juarez

18 · F. Zicarelli

19 · M. Mamani

20 · N. Toloza

Our number · agropecuario winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market43%

Us44%

~~Market~~43%

We make Agropecuario a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Agropecuario v Colegiales~~1.20 – 0.79

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 6 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 40 v 47~~13 v 8

~~The market · Agropecuario win~~43% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Agropecuario win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 43% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Agropecuario win	44%	43%	+1
Draw	32%	31%	+1
Colegiales win	23%	26%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	32%	35%	−3
Both teams to score	39%	43%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	60%	61%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	14%	17%	−3
Agropecuario or draw	77%	74%	+3
Agropecuario clean sheet	46%	–	–
Colegiales clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.2%

0123450 15.1 9.7 4.3 1 15.2 13.9 5.1 2 9.8 7.6 3.0 3 4.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Agropecuario down, Colegiales across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,910 Primera Nacional matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.7% of games this season, across 594 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Agropecuario at home: 1.50 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Colegiales away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Agropecuario, 0.79 for Colegiales. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~COL 0–0 AGR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 6 Sept

AGROPECUARIO

WLWLDW2–0 · 0–3 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–0

COLEGIALES

LWLWWD1–3 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026 · Group 2

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Tristan Suarez	33	+17	59
2	Temperley	33	+13	59
3	Atlanta	34	+7	58
4	Gimnasia Jujuy	33	+8	55
5	Gimnasia Y Tiro	34	+6	52
6	Midland	33	+12	51
7	Deportivo Maipu	33	+8	48
8	Colegiales	33	+1	47
9	San Martin S.J.	33	+2	46
10	Atletico DE Rafaela	34	−6	45
11	San Martin Tucuman	33	+2	43
12	Almagro	33	−9	41
13	Agropecuario	33	−8	40
14	Quilmes	34	+1	39
15	Patronato	33	−3	37
16	Nueva Chicago	33	−8	36
17	Chacarita Juniors	33	−10	33
18	Club Atlético Güemes	33	−33	23