Acassuso v Deportivo Madryn prediction · Primera Nacional

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Acassuso 0–0 Deportivo Madryn DEPORTIVO MADRYN WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Deportivo Madryn win~~35%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.663

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.710

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Madryn win at 35%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Madryn 35% before kick-off, 35% now. 0–0 · 32–34–35
1′KICK-OFF Acassuso v Deportivo Madryn
17′SUBSTITUTION · 16' Deportivo Madryn · On: J. Peinipil · Off: C. Machado
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Deportivo Madryn win 32%)
24′🟨 YELLOW · 24' Deportivo Madryn
45′HALF-TIME Acassuso 0–0 Deportivo Madryn
46′SECOND HALF Acassuso 0–0 Deportivo Madryn
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Deportivo Madryn win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Deportivo Madryn
56′We said Deportivo Madryn at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 22–55–23
56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Deportivo Madryn · On: F. Bersano · Off: N. Solis
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Deportivo Madryn · On: E. Montagna · Off: L. Marinucci
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Acassuso
59′🟨 YELLOW · 59' Acassuso
65′We said Deportivo Madryn at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 18–62–19
69′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Acassuso · On: N. Acosta · Off: R. Reynoso
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Deportivo Madryn win: 35% at kick-off, 15% now
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Acassuso
74′We said Deportivo Madryn at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 13–73–14
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Acassuso · On: L. Romero · Off: D. Escalante
FTFULL TIME Acassuso 0–0 Deportivo Madryn
FTAcassuso 0–0 Deportivo Madryn · Deportivo Madryn win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Deportivo Madryn just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Acassuso 32%, draw 34%, Deportivo Madryn 35%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Acassuso v Deportivo MadrynBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Acassuso win32%

Draw34%

Deportivo Madryn win35%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 34

VenueLa Quema Stadium

Line-ups

Acassuso

Deportivo Madryn

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Acassuso

Deportivo Madryn

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera Nacional

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Deportivo Madryn	33	+17	53
17	Acassuso	33	−10	32

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Acassuso

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Monllor

4 R. Etcheverri

2 D. N. Bellatti S.

6 J. Ghiraldello

3 A. Ruiz

7 R. Reynoso

8 K. Dubini

10 A. Hermoso

5 J. Postigo

11 T. Rodriguez

9 D. Escalante

Coach · Dario Lema

Substitutes

12 · J. Luque

13 · S. Borges

14 · V. Serrano

15 · N. Petillo

16 · J. Raccio

17 · N. Acosta

18 · F. Sena

19 · L. Romero

20 · Y. Gomez

Deportivo Madryn

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Bonnin

4 A. Sosa

2 F. Giacopuzzi

6 C. Corvalan

3 L. Diarte

11 C. Machado

7 L. Marinucci

8 M. Meli

5 F. Recalde

9 L. Silba

10 N. Solis

Coach · Christian Diaz

Substitutes

12 · M. Montero

13 · N. D. Ortiz

14 · A. Gutierrez

15 · A. Dionisio

16 · D. Martinez

17 · E. Montagna

18 · F. Bersano

19 · J. Peinipil

20 · N. Servetto

Our number · deportivo madryn winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

35% The market36%

Us35%

~~Market~~36%

We make Deportivo Madryn a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Acassuso v Deportivo Madryn~~0.96 – 1.01

~~Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 32 v 53~~17 v 4

~~The market · Deportivo Madryn win~~36% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Madryn win The market, margin stripped

Published at 37%, 35% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Acassuso win	32%	33%	−1
Draw	34%	31%	+3
Deportivo Madryn win	35%	36%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	32%	39%	−7
Both teams to score	40%	46%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	14%	19%	−5
Acassuso or draw	65%	64%	+1
Acassuso clean sheet	37%	–	–
Deportivo Madryn clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.3%

0123450 15.3 12.9 7.1 2.5 1 12.1 14.6 6.8 2.3 2 6.4 6.4 3.2 3 2.1 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Acassuso down, Deportivo Madryn across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 3,910 Primera Nacional matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera Nacional matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.7% of games this season, across 594 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Acassuso at home: 0.67 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Madryn away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.96 goals for Acassuso, 1.01 for Deportivo Madryn. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~DEP 0–0 ACA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera Nacional this season · since 5 Sept

ACASSUSO

LLWWLW0–1 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0

DEPORTIVO MADRYN

WLWDWL3–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–2

The table

2026 · Group 1

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Ferro Carril Oeste	33	+9	62
2	Deportivo Moron	33	+17	58
3	Godoy Cruz	33	+13	57
4	Deportivo Madryn	33	+17	53
5	Colon Santa Fe	33	+14	53
6	CA Estudiantes	33	+4	48
7	Ciudad de Bolívar	33	0	48
8	Almirante Brown	33	+4	47
9	Los Andes	33	+1	40
10	Chaco For Ever	33	−2	40
11	Racing Cordoba	33	−9	40
12	Defensores De Belgrano	33	−7	37
13	San Telmo	33	−9	37
14	Atletico Mitre	33	−10	36
15	Central Norte	33	−9	34
16	All Boys	33	−10	34
17	Acassuso	33	−10	32
18	San Miguel	33	−13	32