Yupanqui v Lujan prediction · Primera C

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Yupanqui 0–1 Lujan LUJAN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lujan win~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.434

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lujan win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Lujan 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 25–28–47
1′KICK-OFF Yupanqui v Lujan
4′Little has changed for our model: Lujan 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 24–29–47
5′Little has changed for our model: Lujan 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 24–29–47
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Yupanqui 0–1 Lujan
17′A goal for Lujan on 16′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–17–76
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Lujan win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Lujan win: 46% at kick-off, 47% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Lujan win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Lujan win: 46% at kick-off, 47% now
19′We said Lujan at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 0–1 · 7–17–76
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Lujan win: 46% at kick-off, 47% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Lujan win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Lujan win: 46% at kick-off, 47% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Lujan win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Lujan win: 46% at kick-off, 76% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Lujan win: 46% at kick-off, 47% now
45′HALF-TIME Yupanqui 0–1 Lujan
46′SECOND HALF Yupanqui 0–1 Lujan
60′⚽ GOAL · 15' Yupanqui 0–1 Lujan · J. Rodriguez
80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Yupanqui
FTFULL TIME Yupanqui 0–1 Lujan
FTYupanqui 0–1 Lujan · Lujan win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Yupanqui win24%

Draw30%

Lujan win46%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Yupanqui

Lujan

8Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lujan	31	+23	61
21	Yupanqui	31	−2	35

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lujan winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Lujan a 46% chance to win. The model expects 0.9–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Yupanqui win	24%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Lujan win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	66%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Yupanqui or draw	54%	–	–
Yupanqui clean sheet	27%	–	–
Lujan clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 12.1 13.6 9.7 4.4 1 8.6 13.7 8.4 3.8 2 4.2 5.6 3.7 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Yupanqui down, Lujan across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,493 Primera C matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera C matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 434 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 1.86 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Yupanqui at home: 0.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Lujan away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for Yupanqui, 1.34 for Lujan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~LUJ 2–0 YUP · LUJ 1–0 YUP · YUP 1–2 LUJ · YUP 1–2 LUJ

Form · last six in Primera C

YUPANQUI

LLDLDL0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

LUJAN

WLWWWW4–0 · 2–3 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lujan	31	+23	61
2	Canuelas	31	+17	58
3	Central Cordoba	31	+10	49
4	Deportivo Español	31	+9	49
5	Berazategui	31	+13	48
6	Leones de Rosario	31	+5	48
7	Centro Español	31	+14	47
8	Sacachispas	31	+6	47
9	Lugano	31	+7	46
10	Juventud Unida	31	+7	45
11	Estrella Del Sur	31	+2	45
12	Mercedes	31	+6	44
13	Victoriano Arenas	31	+5	44
14	General Lamadrid	31	−4	40
15	Sportivo Barracas	31	0	39
16	Central Ballester	31	−1	38
17	Puerto Nuevo	31	−7	38
18	Atletico Atlas	31	−4	37
19	El Porvenir	31	−5	37
20	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	−6	36
21	Yupanqui	31	−2	35
22	Fénix	31	−7	34
23	Claypole	31	−14	33
24	JJ Urquiza	31	−7	32
25	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	−16	32
26	Leandro N. Alem	31	−26	31
27	Deportivo Muñiz	31	−14	29
28	Argentino Rosario	31	−11	27