Victoriano Arenas v Leandro N. Alem prediction · Primera C

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Victoriano Arenas 2–0 Leandro N. Alem VICTORIANO ARENAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Victoriano Arenas win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.507

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 8 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Victoriano Arenas win at 42%.
1′Much as we predicted: Victoriano Arenas was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–30–27
1′KICK-OFF Victoriano Arenas v Leandro N. Alem
4′Much as we predicted: Victoriano Arenas was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–31–27
5′Much as we predicted: Victoriano Arenas was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 42–31–27
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Victoriano Arenas 1–0 Leandro N. Alem
32′⚽ GOAL · 32' Victoriano Arenas 2–0 Leandro N. Alem
45′HALF-TIME Victoriano Arenas 2–0 Leandro N. Alem
46′SECOND HALF Victoriano Arenas 2–0 Leandro N. Alem
60′⚽ GOAL · 29' Victoriano Arenas 2–0 Leandro N. Alem · E. Saporito
60′⚽ GOAL · 32' Victoriano Arenas 2–0 Leandro N. Alem · R. Rivarola
FTFULL TIME Victoriano Arenas 2–0 Leandro N. Alem
FTVictoriano Arenas 2–0 Leandro N. Alem · Victoriano Arenas win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Victoriano Arenas win42%

Draw32%

Leandro N. Alem win26%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

VenueEstadio Saturnino Moure

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Victoriano Arenas

Leandro N. Alem

10Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Victoriano Arenas	31	+5	44
26	Leandro N. Alem	31	−26	31

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · victoriano arenas winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Victoriano Arenas a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.9, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Victoriano Arenas win	42%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Leandro N. Alem win	26%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	61%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Victoriano Arenas or draw	74%	–	–
Victoriano Arenas clean sheet	43%	–	–
Leandro N. Alem clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.3%

0123450 14.3 10.3 4.9 1 14.3 14.1 5.6 2 9.0 7.6 3.3 3 3.5 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Victoriano Arenas down, Leandro N. Alem across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,493 Primera C matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera C matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 434 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 1.78 goals a meeting; 4 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Victoriano Arenas at home: 0.50 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Leandro N. Alem away: 0.67 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.17 goals for Victoriano Arenas, 0.86 for Leandro N. Alem. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.78

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~LEA 0–0 VIC · LEA 3–0 VIC · VIC 1–2 LEA · LEA 1–0 VIC

Form · last six in Primera C

VICTORIANO ARENAS

DDLWDW1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0

LEANDRO N. ALEM

LLDLWL0–3 · 1–4 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 1–5

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lujan	31	+23	61
2	Canuelas	31	+17	58
3	Central Cordoba	31	+10	49
4	Deportivo Español	31	+9	49
5	Berazategui	31	+13	48
6	Leones de Rosario	31	+5	48
7	Centro Español	31	+14	47
8	Sacachispas	31	+6	47
9	Lugano	31	+7	46
10	Juventud Unida	31	+7	45
11	Estrella Del Sur	31	+2	45
12	Mercedes	31	+6	44
13	Victoriano Arenas	31	+5	44
14	General Lamadrid	31	−4	40
15	Sportivo Barracas	31	0	39
16	Central Ballester	31	−1	38
17	Puerto Nuevo	31	−7	38
18	Atletico Atlas	31	−4	37
19	El Porvenir	31	−5	37
20	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	−6	36
21	Yupanqui	31	−2	35
22	Fénix	31	−7	34
23	Claypole	31	−14	33
24	JJ Urquiza	31	−7	32
25	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	−16	32
26	Leandro N. Alem	31	−26	31
27	Deportivo Muñiz	31	−14	29
28	Argentino Rosario	31	−11	27