Victoriano Arenas v Deportivo Español
Victoriano ArenasDeportivo EspañolPrimera C · SAT 17 OCT · Estadio Saturnino Moure
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 37%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 25–37–37
- 1′KICK-OFF Victoriano Arenas v Deportivo Español
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 47% now
- 37′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 49%. 0–0 · 21–49–30
- 38′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 50%. 0–0 · 21–50–29
- 45′HALF-TIME Victoriano Arenas 0–0 Deportivo Español
- 46′SECOND HALF Victoriano Arenas 0–0 Deportivo Español
- 48′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 55%. 0–0 · 19–55–26
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 57% now
- 55′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 60%. 0–0 · 17–60–23
- 62′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–0 · 15–65–20
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 67% now
- 67′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–0 · 13–70–17
- 72′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–0 · 11–75–14
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
- 76′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–0 · 9–80–12
- 80′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–0 · 7–85–9
- 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
- 84′We said the draw at 37% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–0 · 4–90–5
- 87′Deportivo Español score on 86′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–3–97
- 87′We said the draw at 37%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 3%. 0–1 · 0–3–97
- 87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Victoriano Arenas 0–1 Deportivo Español
- 87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' Draw: 37% at kick-off, 3% now
- 87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Deportivo Español win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
- FTFULL TIME Victoriano Arenas 0–1 Deportivo Español
- FTVictoriano Arenas 0–1 Deportivo Español · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Under 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassA draw is the likeliest result.
The Pitchside prediction: Victoriano Arenas 26%, draw 37%, Deportivo Español 37%. Over 2.5 goals 21%, both teams to score 30%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Victoriano Arenas win26%Deportivo Español win37%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00
RoundRound of 16
VenueEstadio Saturnino Moure
Match timeline
All events
Victoriano ArenasMINDeportivo EspañolEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Victoriano Arenas
Deportivo Español
Last match: 12 Oct · Primera C
Last match: 12 Oct · Primera C
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make the draw a 37% chance. The market has it at 35%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.7–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Victoriano Arenas win | 26% | 28% | −2 |
| Draw | 37% | 35% | +2 |
| Deportivo Español win | 37% | 36% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 21% | 29% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | 30% | 38% | −8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 47% | 54% | −7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 8% | 13% | −5 |
| Victoriano Arenas or draw | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Victoriano Arenas clean sheet | 41% | – | – |
| Deportivo Español clean sheet | 51% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primera C this season · since 5 Sept
VICTORIANO ARENAS
DEPORTIVO ESPAÑOL