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Sportivo Barracas v Sacachispas

Sportivo Barracas
0–0Full time
Sacachispas

Primera C · MON 19 OCT

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 21:30
Sportivo Barracas 0–0 Sacachispas SPORTIVO BARRACAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Sportivo Barracas win37%
The market said49%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.670
The market’s Brier score0.788

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Sportivo Barracas win at 37%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Sportivo Barracas was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–34–29
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Sportivo Barracas v Sacachispas
  4. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Sportivo Barracas win 36%)
  5. 45′HALF-TIME Sportivo Barracas 0–0 Sacachispas
  6. 45′SECOND HALF Sportivo Barracas 0–0 Sacachispas
  7. 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Sportivo Barracas win: 37% at kick-off, 27% now
  8. 54′We said Sportivo Barracas at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 0–0 · 25–54–21
  9. 57′We said Sportivo Barracas at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–56–20
  10. 67′We said Sportivo Barracas at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–65–16
  11. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Sportivo Barracas win: 37% at kick-off, 17% now
  12. 75′We said Sportivo Barracas at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–74–12
  13. 81′We said Sportivo Barracas at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
  14. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 83' Sportivo Barracas win: 37% at kick-off, 7% now
  15. 88′We said Sportivo Barracas at 37%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
  16. 90′Full time, 0–0. We called Sportivo Barracas at 37% — wrong, and it goes on the record that way. 0–0 · 0–100–0
  17. FTFULL TIME Sportivo Barracas 0–0 Sacachispas
  18. FTSportivo Barracas 0–0 Sacachispas · Sportivo Barracas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sportivo Barracas just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sportivo Barracas 37%, draw 33%, Sacachispas 29%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Sportivo Barracas v SacachispasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Sportivo Barracas win37%
Draw33%
Sacachispas win29%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sportivo Barracas

Sacachispas

7Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera C

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera C

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · sportivo barracas winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
37% The market49%
Us37%
Market49%

We make Sportivo Barracas a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Sportivo Barracas v Sacachispas1.05 – 0.89
Form · last six in Primera C this season · since 5 SeptW1 D2 L3 · W1 D2 L3
The market · Sportivo Barracas win49% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%30%40%50% 15 OCT 04:3919 OCT 18:36
Our probability · Sportivo Barracas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Sportivo Barracas win37%49%−12
Draw33%29%+4
Sacachispas win29%22%+7
Over 2.5 goals31%40%−9
Both teams to score39%44%−5
Over 1.5 goals58%62%−4
Over 3.5 goals13%19%−6
Sportivo Barracas or draw71%78%−7
Sportivo Barracas clean sheet41%––
Sacachispas clean sheet35%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.6%
0123450 15.6 11.8 5.7 1 14.0 14.3 5.9 2 7.9 6.9 3.1 3 2.8 2.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Sportivo Barracas down, Sacachispas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera C this season · since 5 Sept

SPORTIVO BARRACAS

WLLDLD2–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 0–0

SACACHISPAS

DLLLDW1–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 1–0