Mercedes v Lugano prediction · Primera C

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Mercedes 1–0 Lugano MERCEDES WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mercedes win~~40%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.543

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.597

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Mercedes win at 40%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Mercedes 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–31–28
1′KICK-OFF Mercedes v Lugano
3′Little has changed for our model: Mercedes 40% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–31–28
45′HALF-TIME Mercedes 0–0 Lugano
45′SECOND HALF Mercedes 0–0 Lugano
46′⚽ GOAL · 47' Mercedes 0–0 Lugano
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Mercedes 1–0 Lugano
58′⚽ GOAL · 47' Mercedes 1–0 Lugano · L. Amado
FTFULL TIME Mercedes 1–0 Lugano
FTMercedes 1–0 Lugano · Mercedes win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Mercedes win40%

Draw33%

Lugano win27%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Mercedes

Lugano

7Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Lugano	31	+7	46
12	Mercedes	31	+6	44

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mercedes winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

40% The market37%

Us40%

~~Market~~37%

We make Mercedes a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · mercedes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 34% to 37% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mercedes win	40%	37%	+3
Draw	33%	33%	−1
Lugano win	27%	30%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	32%	34%	−2
Both teams to score	40%	42%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	60%	58%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	14%	17%	−3
Mercedes or draw	73%	70%	+2
Mercedes clean sheet	42%	–	–
Lugano clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.0%

0123450 15.0 10.9 5.2 1 14.3 14.2 5.7 2 8.5 7.3 3.2 3 3.2 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mercedes down, Lugano across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,493 Primera C matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera C matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 434 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.60 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mercedes at home: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Lugano away: 1.00 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.11 goals for Mercedes, 0.87 for Lugano. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LUG 1–0 MER · LUG 0–1 MER · MER 1–1 LUG · MER 2–2 LUG

Form · last six in Primera C

MERCEDES

LLDWWD1–4 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

LUGANO

DWDDDL1–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lujan	31	+23	61
2	Canuelas	31	+17	58
3	Central Cordoba	31	+10	49
4	Deportivo Español	31	+9	49
5	Berazategui	31	+13	48
6	Leones de Rosario	31	+5	48
7	Centro Español	31	+14	47
8	Sacachispas	31	+6	47
9	Lugano	31	+7	46
10	Juventud Unida	31	+7	45
11	Estrella Del Sur	31	+2	45
12	Mercedes	31	+6	44
13	Victoriano Arenas	31	+5	44
14	General Lamadrid	31	−4	40
15	Sportivo Barracas	31	0	39
16	Central Ballester	31	−1	38
17	Puerto Nuevo	31	−7	38
18	Atletico Atlas	31	−4	37
19	El Porvenir	31	−5	37
20	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	−6	36
21	Yupanqui	31	−2	35
22	Fénix	31	−7	34
23	Claypole	31	−14	33
24	JJ Urquiza	31	−7	32
25	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	−16	32
26	Leandro N. Alem	31	−26	31
27	Deportivo Muñiz	31	−14	29
28	Argentino Rosario	31	−11	27