Mercedes v Leones de Rosario
MercedesLeones de RosarioPrimera C · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: the draw was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 36% now. 0–0 · 33–36–31
- 1′KICK-OFF Mercedes v Leones de Rosario
- 35′Leones de Rosario find the net on 34′. 0–1. 0–1 · 7–21–72
- 35′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 7–21–72
- 35′⚽ GOAL · 34' Mercedes 0–1 Leones de Rosario
- 35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 21% now
- 35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Leones de Rosario win is now our likeliest result at 72% (was Draw 21%)
- 37′Goals are coming at about the 1.7 we expected. 0–1 · 6–21–73
- 49′A goal for Mercedes on 48′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 24–53–23
- 49′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 53%. 1–1 · 24–53–23
- 49′⚽ GOAL · 48' Mercedes 1–1 Leones de Rosario
- 49′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 49' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 53% now
- 49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 53% (was Leones de Rosario win 23%)
- 53′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 56%. 1–1 · 23–56–22
- 53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 56% now
- 59′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 60%. 1–1 · 20–60–20
- 64′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 65%. 1–1 · 18–65–17
- 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
- 69′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 70%. 1–1 · 15–70–15
- 74′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–1 · 13–75–12
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
- 78′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–1 · 10–80–10
- 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 89% now
- 85′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–1 · 5–90–5
- 86′Goals are coming at about the 1.7 we expected. 1–1 · 5–91–4
- 88′A red card for Leones de Rosario on 88′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 4–93–4
- 88′🟥 RED CARD · 88' Leones de Rosario
- 93′We published the draw at 36%. Our model now makes it 97%. 1–1 · 1–97–1
- 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+3' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 97% now
- 96′Mercedes score on 90′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 99–1–0
- 96′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Mercedes 2–1 Leones de Rosario
- 96′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+6' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 1% now
- 96′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+6' Mercedes win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
- 98′We said the draw at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–1 · 99–1–0
- 98′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.7 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 99–1–0
- FTFULL TIME Mercedes 2–1 Leones de Rosario
- FTMercedes 2–1 Leones de Rosario · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassA draw is the likeliest result.
The Pitchside prediction: Mercedes 33%, draw 36%, Leones de Rosario 31%. Over 2.5 goals 25%, both teams to score 34%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Mercedes win33%Leones de Rosario win31%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 20:30
RoundRound of 16
Match timeline
All events
MercedesMINLeones de RosarioEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Mercedes
Leones de Rosario
Last match: 12 Oct · Primera C
Last match: 12 Oct · Primera C
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make the draw a 36% chance. The market has it at 33%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 33% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes win | 33% | 26% | +7 |
| Draw | 36% | 33% | +3 |
| Leones de Rosario win | 31% | 41% | −10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25% | 33% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | 34% | 41% | −7 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10% | 17% | −7 |
| Mercedes or draw | 69% | 59% | +10 |
| Mercedes clean sheet | 43% | – | – |
| Leones de Rosario clean sheet | 42% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2026No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primera C this season · since 4 Sept
MERCEDES
LEONES DE ROSARIO