Lugano v Canuelas
LuganoCanuelasPrimera C · MON 19 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Canuelas win at 40%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Canuelas 40% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 28–32–40
- 1′KICK-OFF Lugano v Canuelas
- 31′A goal for Canuelas on 30′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 7–19–74
- 31′We said Canuelas at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 74%. 0–1 · 7–19–74
- 31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Lugano 0–1 Canuelas
- 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Canuelas win: 40% at kick-off, 74% now
- 32′We said Canuelas at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 7–19–75
- 32′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–75
- 45′HALF-TIME Lugano 0–1 Canuelas
- 46′SECOND HALF Lugano 0–1 Canuelas
- 56′We said Canuelas at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
- 56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Canuelas win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
- 69′We said Canuelas at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
- 78′We said Canuelas at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Canuelas win: 40% at kick-off, 90% now
- 85′We said Canuelas at 40% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
- FTFULL TIME Lugano 0–1 Canuelas
- FTLugano 0–1 Canuelas · Canuelas win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Canuelas are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Lugano 28%, draw 32%, Canuelas 40%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
Lugano win28%Canuelas win40%Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 19:00
RoundRound of 16
Match timeline
All events
LuganoMINCanuelasEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Lugano
Canuelas
Last match: 12 Oct · Primera C
Last match: 12 Oct · Primera C
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Canuelas a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.2.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lugano win | 28% | 26% | +2 |
| Draw | 32% | 35% | −3 |
| Canuelas win | 40% | 39% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35% | 36% | −1 |
| Both teams to score | 42% | 44% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63% | 60% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 19% | −3 |
| Lugano or draw | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Lugano clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
| Canuelas clean sheet | 40% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primera C this season · since 6 Sept
LUGANO
CANUELAS