Leones de Rosario v Mercedes
Leones de RosarioMercedesPrimera C · MON 26 OCT
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Leones de Rosario are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Leones de Rosario 41%, draw 34%, Mercedes 25%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 35%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Leones de Rosario win41%Mercedes win25%Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 18:00
RoundRound of 16
Match timeline
All events
Leones de RosarioMINMercedesEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Leones de Rosario
Mercedes
Last match: 17 Oct · Primera C
Last match: 17 Oct · Primera C
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Leones de Rosario a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leones de Rosario win | 41% | 48% | −7 |
| Draw | 34% | 29% | +5 |
| Mercedes win | 25% | 22% | +3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 27% | 38% | −11 |
| Both teams to score | 35% | 43% | −8 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 54% | 62% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 11% | 19% | −8 |
| Leones de Rosario or draw | 75% | 78% | −3 |
| Leones de Rosario clean sheet | 47% | – | – |
| Mercedes clean sheet | 36% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2026Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primera C this season · since 10 Sept
LEONES DE ROSARIO
MERCEDES