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Leones de Rosario v Fénix

Leones de Rosario

2–1Full time

Fénix

Primera C · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Leones de Rosario 2–1 Fénix LEONES DE ROSARIO WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Leones de Rosario win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.525

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Leones de Rosario win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Leones de Rosario 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–33–25
4′Little has changed for our model: Leones de Rosario 41% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 42–34–25
5′Little has changed for our model: Leones de Rosario 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 41–34–25
13′Leones de Rosario find the net on 11′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–18–6
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
15′We said Leones de Rosario at 41% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 76%. 1–0 · 76–18–6
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Leones de Rosario win: 41% at kick-off, 41% now
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Leones de Rosario 1–1 Fénix
45′HALF-TIME Leones de Rosario 1–1 Fénix
46′SECOND HALF Leones de Rosario 1–1 Fénix
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Leones de Rosario 2–1 Fénix
60′⚽ GOAL · 11' Leones de Rosario 2–1 Fénix · G. Bernardini
60′⚽ GOAL · 28' Leones de Rosario 2–1 Fénix · M. Martinez
60′⚽ GOAL · 55' Leones de Rosario 2–1 Fénix
FTFULL TIME Leones de Rosario 2–1 Fénix
FTLeones de Rosario 2–1 Fénix · Leones de Rosario win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Leones de Rosario win41%

Draw35%

Fénix win24%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Leones de Rosario

Fénix

7Days since last match6

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Leones de Rosario	31	+5	48
22	Fénix	31	−7	34

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · leones de rosario winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Leones de Rosario a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–0.7, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Leones de Rosario win	41%	–	–
Draw	35%	–	–
Fénix win	24%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	26%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	53%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	10%	–	–
Leones de Rosario or draw	76%	–	–
Leones de Rosario clean sheet	49%	–	–
Fénix clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.4%

0123450 18.4 11.4 4.5 1 16.8 13.7 4.6 2 9.2 6.6 2.4 3 3.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Leones de Rosario down, Fénix across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,493 Primera C matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera C matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 434 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Leones de Rosario at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Fénix away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Leones de Rosario, 0.73 for Fénix. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FEN 0–1 LEO

Form · last six in Primera C

LEONES DE ROSARIO

WWDDLW1–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

FÉNIX

LLDWLW0–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lujan	31	+23	61
2	Canuelas	31	+17	58
3	Central Cordoba	31	+10	49
4	Deportivo Español	31	+9	49
5	Berazategui	31	+13	48
6	Leones de Rosario	31	+5	48
7	Centro Español	31	+14	47
8	Sacachispas	31	+6	47
9	Lugano	31	+7	46
10	Juventud Unida	31	+7	45
11	Estrella Del Sur	31	+2	45
12	Mercedes	31	+6	44
13	Victoriano Arenas	31	+5	44
14	General Lamadrid	31	−4	40
15	Sportivo Barracas	31	0	39
16	Central Ballester	31	−1	38
17	Puerto Nuevo	31	−7	38
18	Atletico Atlas	31	−4	37
19	El Porvenir	31	−5	37
20	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	−6	36
21	Yupanqui	31	−2	35
22	Fénix	31	−7	34
23	Claypole	31	−14	33
24	JJ Urquiza	31	−7	32
25	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	−16	32
26	Leandro N. Alem	31	−26	31
27	Deportivo Muñiz	31	−14	29
28	Argentino Rosario	31	−11	27