JJ Urquiza v Deportivo Paraguayo prediction · Primera C

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

JJ Urquiza 2–0 Deportivo Paraguayo JJ URQUIZA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said JJ Urquiza win~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.397

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 7 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said JJ Urquiza win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: JJ Urquiza was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–31–19
1′KICK-OFF JJ Urquiza v Deportivo Paraguayo
4′Much as we predicted: JJ Urquiza was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–31–19
5′Much as we predicted: JJ Urquiza was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–32–19
45′HALF-TIME JJ Urquiza 0–0 Deportivo Paraguayo
46′SECOND HALF JJ Urquiza 0–0 Deportivo Paraguayo
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' JJ Urquiza 1–0 Deportivo Paraguayo
60′⚽ GOAL · 50' JJ Urquiza 1–0 Deportivo Paraguayo · L. Fusca
83′⚽ GOAL · 82' JJ Urquiza 2–0 Deportivo Paraguayo
FTFULL TIME JJ Urquiza 2–0 Deportivo Paraguayo
FTJJ Urquiza 2–0 Deportivo Paraguayo · JJ Urquiza win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

JJ Urquiza win49%

Draw32%

Deportivo Paraguayo win18%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

JJ Urquiza

Deportivo Paraguayo

8Days since last match7

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
24	JJ Urquiza	31	−7	32
25	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	−16	32

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jj urquiza winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make JJ Urquiza a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.6, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 18%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
JJ Urquiza win	49%	–	–
Draw	32%	–	–
Deportivo Paraguayo win	18%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	28%	–	–
Both teams to score	34%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	56%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	12%	–	–
JJ Urquiza or draw	82%	–	–
JJ Urquiza clean sheet	53%	–	–
Deportivo Paraguayo clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 18.2%

0123450 17.0 9.1 3.2 1 18.2 12.9 3.8 2 11.6 7.2 2.3 3 4.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+JJ Urquiza down, Deportivo Paraguayo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,493 Primera C matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera C matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 434 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 0.67 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

JJ Urquiza at home: 0.83 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Paraguayo away: 0.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for JJ Urquiza, 0.63 for Deportivo Paraguayo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~0.67

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DEP 0–0 JJU · DEP 1–0 JJU · JJU 1–0 DEP

Form · last six in Primera C

JJ URQUIZA

LWDDLW1–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 4–1

DEPORTIVO PARAGUAYO

DWLWDD0–0 · 4–1 · 0–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lujan	31	+23	61
2	Canuelas	31	+17	58
3	Central Cordoba	31	+10	49
4	Deportivo Español	31	+9	49
5	Berazategui	31	+13	48
6	Leones de Rosario	31	+5	48
7	Centro Español	31	+14	47
8	Sacachispas	31	+6	47
9	Lugano	31	+7	46
10	Juventud Unida	31	+7	45
11	Estrella Del Sur	31	+2	45
12	Mercedes	31	+6	44
13	Victoriano Arenas	31	+5	44
14	General Lamadrid	31	−4	40
15	Sportivo Barracas	31	0	39
16	Central Ballester	31	−1	38
17	Puerto Nuevo	31	−7	38
18	Atletico Atlas	31	−4	37
19	El Porvenir	31	−5	37
20	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	−6	36
21	Yupanqui	31	−2	35
22	Fénix	31	−7	34
23	Claypole	31	−14	33
24	JJ Urquiza	31	−7	32
25	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	−16	32
26	Leandro N. Alem	31	−26	31
27	Deportivo Muñiz	31	−14	29
28	Argentino Rosario	31	−11	27