General Lamadrid v Estrella Del Sur
General LamadridEstrella Del SurPrimera C · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said General Lamadrid win at 42%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: General Lamadrid was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–32–27
- 1′KICK-OFF General Lamadrid v Estrella Del Sur
- 33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was General Lamadrid win 35%)
- 42′A goal for General Lamadrid on 42′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 77–18–5
- 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' General Lamadrid 1–0 Estrella Del Sur
- 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' General Lamadrid win: 42% at kick-off, 77% now
- 42′THE CALL SWINGS · 42' General Lamadrid win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 18%)
- 43′We published General Lamadrid at 42%. Our model now makes it 77%. 1–0 · 77–18–5
- 43′Goals are coming at about the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 77–18–5
- 45′HALF-TIME General Lamadrid 1–0 Estrella Del Sur
- 46′SECOND HALF General Lamadrid 1–0 Estrella Del Sur
- 53′We published General Lamadrid at 42%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
- 57′Estrella Del Sur score on 57′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 27–54–19
- 57′⚽ GOAL · 57' General Lamadrid 1–1 Estrella Del Sur
- 57′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 57' General Lamadrid win: 42% at kick-off, 27% now
- 57′THE CALL SWINGS · 57' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was General Lamadrid win 27%)
- 58′We said General Lamadrid at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 26–55–19
- 62′We said General Lamadrid at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–58–17
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' General Lamadrid win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
- 71′A red card for General Lamadrid on 69′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 19–68–14
- 71′We said General Lamadrid at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–68–14
- 71′🟥 RED CARD · 69' General Lamadrid
- 77′We said General Lamadrid at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–76–10
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' General Lamadrid win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
- 82′We said General Lamadrid at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–84–7
- 89′We said General Lamadrid at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
- 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' General Lamadrid win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
- FTFULL TIME General Lamadrid 1–1 Estrella Del Sur
- FTGeneral Lamadrid 1–1 Estrella Del Sur · General Lamadrid win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassGeneral Lamadrid are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: General Lamadrid 42%, draw 32%, Estrella Del Sur 27%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
General Lamadrid win42%Estrella Del Sur win27%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00
RoundRound of 16
Match timeline
All events
General LamadridMINEstrella Del SurEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
General Lamadrid
Estrella Del Sur
Last match: 12 Oct · Primera C
Last match: 12 Oct · Primera C
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make General Lamadrid a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Lamadrid win | 42% | 34% | +8 |
| Draw | 32% | 33% | −1 |
| Estrella Del Sur win | 27% | 33% | −6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34% | 33% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 41% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16% | 16% | 0 |
| General Lamadrid or draw | 73% | 67% | +6 |
| General Lamadrid clean sheet | 41% | – | – |
| Estrella Del Sur clean sheet | 31% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
2 meetings since 2024Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primera C this season · since 6 Sept
GENERAL LAMADRID
ESTRELLA DEL SUR