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Estrella Del Sur v Juventud Unida

Estrella Del Sur

2–1Full time

Juventud Unida

Primera C · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Estrella Del Sur 2–1 Juventud Unida ESTRELLA DEL SUR WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Estrella Del Sur win~~40%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.533

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.528

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Estrella Del Sur win at 40%.
1′KICK-OFF Estrella Del Sur v Juventud Unida
2′Much as we predicted: Estrella Del Sur was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–31–28
4′Much as we predicted: Estrella Del Sur was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–31–28
4′4′ and it is 1–0: Estrella Del Sur have scored. 1–0 · 72–19–9
4′⚽ GOAL · 4' Estrella Del Sur 1–0 Juventud Unida
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 41% now
6′4′ and it is 1–0: Estrella Del Sur have scored. 1–0 · 72–19–9
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 41% now
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
9′3′ and it is 1–0: C. Campuzano on the scoresheet for Estrella Del Sur. 1–0 · 73–19–9
11′We published Estrella Del Sur at 40%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–19–8
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
24′🟥 RED CARD · 24' Juventud Unida
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Estrella Del Sur 2–0 Juventud Unida
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 33' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 34' Estrella Del Sur win: 40% at kick-off, 72% now
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Estrella Del Sur 2–1 Juventud Unida
45′HALF-TIME Estrella Del Sur 2–1 Juventud Unida
46′SECOND HALF Estrella Del Sur 2–1 Juventud Unida
60′⚽ GOAL · 3' Estrella Del Sur 2–1 Juventud Unida · R. Lopez
60′🟥 RED CARD · 23' A. Vega · Juventud Unida
60′⚽ GOAL · 30' Estrella Del Sur 2–1 Juventud Unida · T. Bravo
60′⚽ GOAL · 40' Estrella Del Sur 2–1 Juventud Unida · E. Arreguin
FTFULL TIME Estrella Del Sur 2–1 Juventud Unida
FTEstrella Del Sur 2–1 Juventud Unida · Estrella Del Sur win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Estrella Del Sur win40%

Draw32%

Juventud Unida win27%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Estrella Del Sur

Juventud Unida

8Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Juventud Unida	31	+7	45
11	Estrella Del Sur	31	+2	45

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · estrella del sur winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

40% The market41%

Us40%

~~Market~~41%

We make Estrella Del Sur a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · estrella del sur win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Estrella Del Sur win	40%	41%	−1
Draw	32%	35%	−3
Juventud Unida win	27%	24%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	33%	32%	+1
Both teams to score	40%	40%	0
Over 1.5 goals	61%	58%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	15%	16%	−1
Estrella Del Sur or draw	73%	76%	−3
Estrella Del Sur clean sheet	42%	–	–
Juventud Unida clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.6%

0123450 14.6 10.7 5.2 1 14.1 14.2 5.8 2 8.6 7.4 3.3 3 3.3 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Estrella Del Sur down, Juventud Unida across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,493 Primera C matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera C matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 434 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Estrella Del Sur at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Juventud Unida away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Estrella Del Sur, 0.88 for Juventud Unida. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~JUV 2–0 EST · JUV 1–1 EST · EST 0–2 JUV

Form · last six in Primera C

ESTRELLA DEL SUR

DLDDWD1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–0

JUVENTUD UNIDA

WLLWDW4–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lujan	31	+23	61
2	Canuelas	31	+17	58
3	Central Cordoba	31	+10	49
4	Deportivo Español	31	+9	49
5	Berazategui	31	+13	48
6	Leones de Rosario	31	+5	48
7	Centro Español	31	+14	47
8	Sacachispas	31	+6	47
9	Lugano	31	+7	46
10	Juventud Unida	31	+7	45
11	Estrella Del Sur	31	+2	45
12	Mercedes	31	+6	44
13	Victoriano Arenas	31	+5	44
14	General Lamadrid	31	−4	40
15	Sportivo Barracas	31	0	39
16	Central Ballester	31	−1	38
17	Puerto Nuevo	31	−7	38
18	Atletico Atlas	31	−4	37
19	El Porvenir	31	−5	37
20	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	−6	36
21	Yupanqui	31	−2	35
22	Fénix	31	−7	34
23	Claypole	31	−14	33
24	JJ Urquiza	31	−7	32
25	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	−16	32
26	Leandro N. Alem	31	−26	31
27	Deportivo Muñiz	31	−14	29
28	Argentino Rosario	31	−11	27