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Deportivo Español v Central Cordoba

Deportivo Español

1–0Full time

Central Cordoba

Primera C · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Deportivo Español 1–0 Central Cordoba DEPORTIVO ESPAÑOL WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Español win~~36%

~~The market said~~39%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.611

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.564

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 22 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Español win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Español was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–35–28
2′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Español was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–35–28
4′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Español was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–35–28
9′⚽ GOAL · 11' Deportivo Español 0–0 Central Cordoba
10′Deportivo Español find the net on 11′. 0–0. 0–0 · 36–37–27
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Deportivo Español 1–0 Central Cordoba
12′Deportivo Español ahead on 10′ through M. David. 1–0. 1–0 · 73–20–7
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 12' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 37% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 37% now
14′We published Deportivo Español at 36%. Our model now makes it 73%. 1–0 · 73–20–7
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 37% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 37% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 37% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 37% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 37% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 73% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 74% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 74% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Deportivo Español win: 36% at kick-off, 37% now
45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Español 1–0 Central Cordoba
60′⚽ GOAL · 10' Deportivo Español 1–0 Central Cordoba · M. David
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Español 1–0 Central Cordoba
FTDeportivo Español 1–0 Central Cordoba · Deportivo Español win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Español win36%

Draw36%

Central Cordoba win27%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Deportivo Español

Central Cordoba

6Days since last match8

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Central Cordoba	31	+10	49
4	Deportivo Español	31	+9	49

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo español winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

36% The market39%

Us36%

~~Market~~39%

We make Deportivo Español a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.9–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportivo español win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Español win	36%	39%	−2
Draw	36%	34%	+2
Central Cordoba win	27%	27%	0
Over 2.5 goals	23%	29%	−5
Both teams to score	32%	37%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	51%	55%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	9%	13%	−4
Deportivo Español or draw	73%	73%	0
Deportivo Español clean sheet	47%	–	–
Central Cordoba clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 20.1%

0123450 20.1 13.2 5.4 1 16.2 13.8 4.8 2 7.9 5.9 2.2 3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Español down, Central Cordoba across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,493 Primera C matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera C matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 434 played.

Head to head

13 previous meetings, 2.54 goals a meeting; 7 of 13 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Español at home: 0.50 scored, 0.00 conceded a game (last 6). Central Cordoba away: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Deportivo Español, 0.75 for Central Cordoba. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

13 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.54

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 13

~~Both scored~~8 of 13

~~Last meetings~~CEN 0–1 DEP · CEN 0–3 DEP · DEP 1–2 CEN · DEP 3–0 CEN

Form · last six in Primera C

DEPORTIVO ESPAÑOL

WWDWWD1–0 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

CENTRAL CORDOBA

WWWDWW1–0 · 2–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lujan	31	+23	61
2	Canuelas	31	+17	58
3	Central Cordoba	31	+10	49
4	Deportivo Español	31	+9	49
5	Berazategui	31	+13	48
6	Leones de Rosario	31	+5	48
7	Centro Español	31	+14	47
8	Sacachispas	31	+6	47
9	Lugano	31	+7	46
10	Juventud Unida	31	+7	45
11	Estrella Del Sur	31	+2	45
12	Mercedes	31	+6	44
13	Victoriano Arenas	31	+5	44
14	General Lamadrid	31	−4	40
15	Sportivo Barracas	31	0	39
16	Central Ballester	31	−1	38
17	Puerto Nuevo	31	−7	38
18	Atletico Atlas	31	−4	37
19	El Porvenir	31	−5	37
20	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	−6	36
21	Yupanqui	31	−2	35
22	Fénix	31	−7	34
23	Claypole	31	−14	33
24	JJ Urquiza	31	−7	32
25	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	−16	32
26	Leandro N. Alem	31	−26	31
27	Deportivo Muñiz	31	−14	29
28	Argentino Rosario	31	−11	27