Home › Football › Primera C › Centro Español v Puerto Nuevo

Centro Español v Puerto Nuevo

Centro Español

1–2Full time

Puerto Nuevo

Primera C · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Centro Español 1–2 Puerto Nuevo CENTRO ESPAÑOL WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Centro Español win~~56%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.063

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.233

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 31 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Centro Español win at 56%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Centro Español 56% before kick-off, 57% now. 0–0 · 57–25–18
11′10′ and it is 0–1: Puerto Nuevo have scored. 0–1 · 28–27–45
13′We said Centro Español at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 0–1 · 27–27–46
21′We said Centro Español at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–1 · 24–28–48
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Centro Español win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Puerto Nuevo win 18%)
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Centro Español win: 56% at kick-off, 23% now
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Puerto Nuevo win is now our likeliest result at 49% (was Centro Español win 23%)
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Centro Español win: 56% at kick-off, 57% now
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Centro Español win: 56% at kick-off, 22% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Puerto Nuevo win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Centro Español win 22%)
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' Centro Español win: 56% at kick-off, 57% now
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Centro Español win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Puerto Nuevo win 18%)
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Centro Español win: 56% at kick-off, 57% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Centro Español win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Puerto Nuevo win 18%)
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' Centro Español win: 56% at kick-off, 22% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Puerto Nuevo win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Centro Español win 22%)
30′10′ and it is 0–1: D. M. Monzon on the scoresheet for Puerto Nuevo. 0–1 · 21–28–51
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Centro Español win: 56% at kick-off, 57% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Centro Español win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Puerto Nuevo win 18%)
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Centro Español win: 56% at kick-off, 21% now
30′THE CALL SWINGS · 30' Puerto Nuevo win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Centro Español win 21%)
32′We said Centro Español at 56%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 0–1 · 20–28–51
33′🟥 RED CARD · 32' Puerto Nuevo
33′PENALTY MISSED · 33' Centro Español
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Centro Español win: 56% at kick-off, 20% now
34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Puerto Nuevo win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Centro Español win 20%)
35′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 35' Centro Español win: 56% at kick-off, 20% now
35′THE CALL SWINGS · 35' Puerto Nuevo win is now our likeliest result at 51% (was Centro Español win 20%)
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Centro Español 0–2 Puerto Nuevo
45′HALF-TIME Centro Español 0–2 Puerto Nuevo
46′SECOND HALF Centro Español 0–2 Puerto Nuevo
60′⚽ GOAL · 15' Centro Español 0–2 Puerto Nuevo · D. M. Monzon
60′🟥 RED CARD · 32' Puerto Nuevo
60′PENALTY MISSED · 38' A. Forgaral · Centro Español
60′⚽ GOAL · 43' Centro Español 0–2 Puerto Nuevo · I. Cahiza
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Centro Español 1–2 Puerto Nuevo
FTFULL TIME Centro Español 1–2 Puerto Nuevo
FTCentro Español 1–2 Puerto Nuevo · Centro Español win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

Get a pass ›

Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Centro Español win56%

Draw26%

Puerto Nuevo win18%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Centro Español

Puerto Nuevo

6Days since last match8

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Centro Español	31	+14	47
17	Puerto Nuevo	31	−7	38

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · centro español winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

56% The market65%

Us56%

~~Market~~65%

We make Centro Español a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · centro español win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 65% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Centro Español win	56%	65%	−9
Draw	26%	22%	+4
Puerto Nuevo win	18%	12%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	45%	48%	−3
Both teams to score	46%	42%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	24%	28%	−4
Centro Español or draw	82%	88%	−5
Centro Español clean sheet	44%	–	–
Puerto Nuevo clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.9%

0123450 9.4 6.0 2.9 1 12.9 12.2 4.7 2 11.4 9.3 3.8 3 6.4 5.2 2.1 4 2.7 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Centro Español down, Puerto Nuevo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,493 Primera C matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera C matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 434 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Centro Español at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Puerto Nuevo away: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.66 goals for Centro Español, 0.82 for Puerto Nuevo. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~PUE 0–2 CEN · PUE 1–0 CEN · CEN 2–2 PUE

Form · last six in Primera C

CENTRO ESPAÑOL

DDDLWW1–1 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 5–1

PUERTO NUEVO

WLLLLL3–0 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–4

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lujan	31	+23	61
2	Canuelas	31	+17	58
3	Central Cordoba	31	+10	49
4	Deportivo Español	31	+9	49
5	Berazategui	31	+13	48
6	Leones de Rosario	31	+5	48
7	Centro Español	31	+14	47
8	Sacachispas	31	+6	47
9	Lugano	31	+7	46
10	Juventud Unida	31	+7	45
11	Estrella Del Sur	31	+2	45
12	Mercedes	31	+6	44
13	Victoriano Arenas	31	+5	44
14	General Lamadrid	31	−4	40
15	Sportivo Barracas	31	0	39
16	Central Ballester	31	−1	38
17	Puerto Nuevo	31	−7	38
18	Atletico Atlas	31	−4	37
19	El Porvenir	31	−5	37
20	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	−6	36
21	Yupanqui	31	−2	35
22	Fénix	31	−7	34
23	Claypole	31	−14	33
24	JJ Urquiza	31	−7	32
25	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	−16	32
26	Leandro N. Alem	31	−26	31
27	Deportivo Muñiz	31	−14	29
28	Argentino Rosario	31	−11	27