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Model 1.2

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Central Cordoba v Centro Español

Central Cordoba
1–0Full time
Centro Español

Primera C · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01
Central Cordoba 1–0 Centro Español CENTRAL CORDOBA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Central Cordoba win44%
The market said35%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.478
The market’s Brier score0.625

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Central Cordoba win at 44%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Central Cordoba 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–31–26
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Central Cordoba v Centro Español
  4. 12′A goal for Central Cordoba on 12′. 0–0 · 42–33–25
  5. 13′We said Central Cordoba at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 1–0 · 75–17–8
  6. 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' Central Cordoba 1–0 Centro Español · P. Killer
  7. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Central Cordoba win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 76–18–6
  9. 45′HALF-TIME Central Cordoba 1–0 Centro Español
  10. 46′SECOND HALF Central Cordoba 1–0 Centro Español
  11. 52′We said Central Cordoba at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
  12. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Central Cordoba win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
  13. 68′We said Central Cordoba at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  14. 77′We said Central Cordoba at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  15. 83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Central Cordoba win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
  16. 84′We said Central Cordoba at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  17. FTFULL TIME Central Cordoba 1–0 Centro Español
  18. FTCentral Cordoba 1–0 Centro Español · Central Cordoba win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Central Cordoba are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Central Cordoba 44%, draw 31%, Centro Español 26%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Central Cordoba v Centro EspañolBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Central Cordoba win44%
Draw31%
Centro Español win26%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Central Cordoba

Centro Español

5Days since last match5

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera C

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera C

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · central cordoba winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off
44% The market35%
Us44%
Market35%

We make Central Cordoba a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 35%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Central Cordoba v Centro Español1.27 – 0.92
Form · last six in Primera C this season · since 5 SeptW4 D1 L1 · W2 D2 L2
The market · Central Cordoba win35% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
30%35%40%45% 15 OCT 04:3917 OCT 18:18
Our probability · Central Cordoba win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Central Cordoba win44%35%+9
Draw31%32%−1
Centro Español win26%32%−6
Over 2.5 goals37%35%+2
Both teams to score44%44%0
Over 1.5 goals65%61%+4
Over 3.5 goals18%17%+1
Central Cordoba or draw74%68%+6
Central Cordoba clean sheet40%––
Centro Español clean sheet28%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.9%
0123450 12.4 9.3 4.7 1 13.3 13.9 5.9 2 9.0 8.2 3.7 3 3.9 3.5 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Central Cordoba down, Centro Español across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting1.75
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored1 of 4
Last meetingsCentro Español 2–2 Central Cordoba · Central Cordoba 0–1 Centro Español · Centro Español 0–0 Central Cordoba · Central Cordoba 2–0 Centro Español

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera C this season · since 5 Sept

CENTRAL CORDOBA

WWDWWL2–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 0–1

CENTRO ESPAÑOL

DDLWWL1–1 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 2–0 · 5–1 · 1–2