Canuelas v Lugano
CanuelasLuganoPrimera C · SUN 25 OCT
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Canuelas are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Canuelas 52%, draw 29%, Lugano 19%. Over 2.5 goals 37%, both teams to score 40%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
Canuelas win52%Lugano win19%Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:00
RoundRound of 16
Match timeline
All events
CanuelasMINLuganoEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Canuelas
Lugano
Last match: 19 Oct · Primera C
Last match: 19 Oct · Primera C
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Canuelas a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 52%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 52% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canuelas win | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Draw | 29% | 28% | +1 |
| Lugano win | 19% | 20% | −1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 39% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64% | 65% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 17% | 20% | −3 |
| Canuelas or draw | 81% | 80% | +1 |
| Canuelas clean sheet | 48% | – | – |
| Lugano clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
3 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Primera C this season · since 12 Sept
CANUELAS
LUGANO