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Canuelas v Central Ballester

Canuelas

4–0Full time

Central Ballester

Primera C · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Canuelas 4–0 Central Ballester CANUELAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Canuelas win~~49%

~~The market said~~53%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.395

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.330

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Canuelas win at 49%.
1′Much as we predicted: Canuelas was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–29–21
3′Much as we predicted: Canuelas was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–30–21
4′Much as we predicted: Canuelas was 49% before kick-off and our model makes it 49% now. 0–0 · 49–30–21
8′A goal for Canuelas on 8′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–6
10′J. Arias scores for Canuelas on 7′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 79–15–5
12′We published Canuelas at 49%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 13' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 80% now
13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 80% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 15' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 80% now
15′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 15' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
16′18′ and it is 1–0: Canuelas have scored. 1–0 · 80–15–5
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 80% now
16′⚽ GOAL · 18' Canuelas 1–0 Central Ballester
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 16' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 80% now
17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Canuelas 2–0 Central Ballester · J. Arias
18′We published Canuelas at 49%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–0 · 95–4–1
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 18' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 80% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 19' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 95% now
19′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 19' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 95% now
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Canuelas win: 49% at kick-off, 49% now
45′HALF-TIME Canuelas 2–0 Central Ballester
45′SECOND HALF Canuelas 2–0 Central Ballester
58′⚽ GOAL · 7' Canuelas 2–0 Central Ballester · J. Arias
58′⚽ GOAL · 17' Canuelas 2–0 Central Ballester · V. Lazarte
65′⚽ GOAL · 66' Canuelas 2–0 Central Ballester
66′⚽ GOAL · 66' Canuelas 3–0 Central Ballester · V. Lazarte
83′⚽ GOAL · 84' Canuelas 3–0 Central Ballester
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Canuelas 4–0 Central Ballester · M. Coyette
FTFULL TIME Canuelas 4–0 Central Ballester
FTCanuelas 4–0 Central Ballester · Canuelas win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Canuelas win49%

Draw31%

Central Ballester win20%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Canuelas

Central Ballester

7Days since last match6

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Canuelas	31	+17	58
16	Central Ballester	31	−1	38

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · canuelas winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

49% The market53%

Us49%

~~Market~~53%

We make Canuelas a 49% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · canuelas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 53% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Canuelas win	49%	53%	−4
Draw	31%	28%	+3
Central Ballester win	20%	19%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	33%	39%	−6
Both teams to score	38%	42%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	60%	63%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	15%	20%	−6
Canuelas or draw	80%	81%	−1
Canuelas clean sheet	49%	–	–
Central Ballester clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.3%

0123450 14.6 8.7 3.5 1 16.3 13.3 4.4 2 11.1 7.9 2.9 3 4.8 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Canuelas down, Central Ballester across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,493 Primera C matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera C matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 434 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Canuelas at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Central Ballester away: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Canuelas, 0.72 for Central Ballester. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~CEN 0–1 CAN · CAN 0–0 CEN · CEN 2–0 CAN

Form · last six in Primera C

CANUELAS

WWWWWD2–0 · 3–2 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 1–1

CENTRAL BALLESTER

WWWDLL2–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lujan	31	+23	61
2	Canuelas	31	+17	58
3	Central Cordoba	31	+10	49
4	Deportivo Español	31	+9	49
5	Berazategui	31	+13	48
6	Leones de Rosario	31	+5	48
7	Centro Español	31	+14	47
8	Sacachispas	31	+6	47
9	Lugano	31	+7	46
10	Juventud Unida	31	+7	45
11	Estrella Del Sur	31	+2	45
12	Mercedes	31	+6	44
13	Victoriano Arenas	31	+5	44
14	General Lamadrid	31	−4	40
15	Sportivo Barracas	31	0	39
16	Central Ballester	31	−1	38
17	Puerto Nuevo	31	−7	38
18	Atletico Atlas	31	−4	37
19	El Porvenir	31	−5	37
20	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	−6	36
21	Yupanqui	31	−2	35
22	Fénix	31	−7	34
23	Claypole	31	−14	33
24	JJ Urquiza	31	−7	32
25	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	−16	32
26	Leandro N. Alem	31	−26	31
27	Deportivo Muñiz	31	−14	29
28	Argentino Rosario	31	−11	27