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Berazategui v Defensores de Cambaceres

Berazategui

3–0Full time

Defensores de Cambaceres

Primera C · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Berazategui 3–0 Defensores de Cambaceres BERAZATEGUI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Berazategui win~~55%

~~The market said~~72%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.318

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.124

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Berazategui win at 55%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Berazategui 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–27–17
1′KICK-OFF Berazategui v Defensores de Cambaceres
3′Little has changed for our model: Berazategui 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–28–17
4′Little has changed for our model: Berazategui 55% before kick-off, 55% now. 0–0 · 55–28–17
25′🟥 RED CARD · 25' Berazategui
25′🟥 RED CARD · 26' Berazategui
41′⚽ GOAL · 42' Berazategui 0–0 Defensores de Cambaceres
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Berazategui 1–0 Defensores de Cambaceres
45′SECOND HALF Berazategui 1–0 Defensores de Cambaceres
58′⚽ GOAL · 60' Berazategui 1–0 Defensores de Cambaceres
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Berazategui 2–0 Defensores de Cambaceres
59′🟥 RED CARD · 26' J. Molina · Berazategui
59′⚽ GOAL · 42' Berazategui 2–0 Defensores de Cambaceres · B. Duarte
59′⚽ GOAL · 60' Berazategui 2–0 Defensores de Cambaceres
92′⚽ GOAL · 92' Berazategui 3–0 Defensores de Cambaceres · N. Pombo
92′⚽ GOAL · 93' Berazategui 3–0 Defensores de Cambaceres
FTFULL TIME Berazategui 3–0 Defensores de Cambaceres
FTBerazategui 3–0 Defensores de Cambaceres · Berazategui win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Berazategui win55%

Draw29%

Defensores de Cambaceres win16%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Berazategui

Defensores de Cambaceres

9Days since last match10

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Berazategui	31	+13	48
20	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	−6	36

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · berazategui winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

55% The market72%

Us55%

~~Market~~72%

We make Berazategui a 55% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 17 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · berazategui win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 72% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Berazategui win	55%	72%	−17
Draw	29%	19%	+10
Defensores de Cambaceres win	16%	10%	+7
Over 2.5 goals	35%	51%	−16
Both teams to score	37%	41%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	63%	74%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	16%	30%	−14
Berazategui or draw	84%	90%	−7
Berazategui clean sheet	52%	–	–
Defensores de Cambaceres clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 16.7%

0123450 13.5 7.3 2.7 1 16.7 12.5 3.8 2 12.5 8.2 2.7 3 6.0 3.9 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Berazategui down, Defensores de Cambaceres across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,493 Primera C matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera C matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 434 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 1.60 goals a meeting; 0 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Berazategui at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Defensores de Cambaceres away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Berazategui, 0.66 for Defensores de Cambaceres. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~DEF 0–1 BER · DEF 0–1 BER · BER 2–0 DEF · BER 1–1 DEF

Form · last six in Primera C

BERAZATEGUI

DWWDWL1–1 · 2–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 2–3

DEFENSORES DE CAMBACERES

DWWDLL0–0 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lujan	31	+23	61
2	Canuelas	31	+17	58
3	Central Cordoba	31	+10	49
4	Deportivo Español	31	+9	49
5	Berazategui	31	+13	48
6	Leones de Rosario	31	+5	48
7	Centro Español	31	+14	47
8	Sacachispas	31	+6	47
9	Lugano	31	+7	46
10	Juventud Unida	31	+7	45
11	Estrella Del Sur	31	+2	45
12	Mercedes	31	+6	44
13	Victoriano Arenas	31	+5	44
14	General Lamadrid	31	−4	40
15	Sportivo Barracas	31	0	39
16	Central Ballester	31	−1	38
17	Puerto Nuevo	31	−7	38
18	Atletico Atlas	31	−4	37
19	El Porvenir	31	−5	37
20	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	−6	36
21	Yupanqui	31	−2	35
22	Fénix	31	−7	34
23	Claypole	31	−14	33
24	JJ Urquiza	31	−7	32
25	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	−16	32
26	Leandro N. Alem	31	−26	31
27	Deportivo Muñiz	31	−14	29
28	Argentino Rosario	31	−11	27