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Atletico Atlas v El Porvenir

Atletico Atlas

1–2Full time

El Porvenir

Primera C · MON 12 OCT

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Atletico Atlas 1–2 El Porvenir ATLETICO ATLAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Atletico Atlas win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.776

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.728

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Atletico Atlas win at 39%.
1′Much as we predicted: Atletico Atlas was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–29
1′KICK-OFF Atletico Atlas v El Porvenir
4′Much as we predicted: Atletico Atlas was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–31–29
5′Much as we predicted: Atletico Atlas was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–31–29
20′19′ and it is 0–1: El Porvenir have scored. 0–1 · 13–24–63
20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Atletico Atlas 0–1 El Porvenir
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Atletico Atlas win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' El Porvenir win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Atletico Atlas win 13%)
20′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 20' Atletico Atlas win: 39% at kick-off, 40% now
20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' Atletico Atlas win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was El Porvenir win 29%)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Atletico Atlas win: 39% at kick-off, 40% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Atletico Atlas win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was El Porvenir win 29%)
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' Atletico Atlas win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' El Porvenir win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Atletico Atlas win 13%)
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 22' Atletico Atlas win: 39% at kick-off, 13% now
22′THE CALL SWINGS · 22' El Porvenir win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Atletico Atlas win 13%)
45′HALF-TIME Atletico Atlas 0–1 El Porvenir
46′SECOND HALF Atletico Atlas 0–1 El Porvenir
60′⚽ GOAL · 19' Atletico Atlas 0–1 El Porvenir · N. De Benedetti
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Atletico Atlas 1–1 El Porvenir
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Atletico Atlas 1–2 El Porvenir
90′🟥 RED CARD · 94' El Porvenir
FTFULL TIME Atletico Atlas 1–2 El Porvenir
FTAtletico Atlas 1–2 El Porvenir · Atletico Atlas win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Atletico Atlas win39%

Draw32%

El Porvenir win28%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Atletico Atlas

El Porvenir

6Days since last match7

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Atletico Atlas	31	−4	37
19	El Porvenir	31	−5	37

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · atletico atlas winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Atletico Atlas a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · atletico atlas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Atletico Atlas win	39%	37%	+2
Draw	32%	32%	0
El Porvenir win	28%	30%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	33%	36%	−3
Both teams to score	41%	44%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	61%	61%	0
Over 3.5 goals	15%	19%	−4
Atletico Atlas or draw	72%	70%	+2
Atletico Atlas clean sheet	40%	–	–
El Porvenir clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.3%

0123450 14.3 10.8 5.4 1 13.6 14.3 6.0 2 8.3 7.4 3.4 3 3.1 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Atletico Atlas down, El Porvenir across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,493 Primera C matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera C matches have gone over 2.5 in 27.6% of games this season, across 434 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.43 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Atletico Atlas at home: 0.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). El Porvenir away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Atletico Atlas, 0.91 for El Porvenir. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.43

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ELP 0–1 ATL · ELP 2–2 ATL · ATL 2–1 ELP · ATL 0–0 ELP

Form · last six in Primera C

ATLETICO ATLAS

LDLLDL0–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

EL PORVENIR

WLWLLD4–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Lujan	31	+23	61
2	Canuelas	31	+17	58
3	Central Cordoba	31	+10	49
4	Deportivo Español	31	+9	49
5	Berazategui	31	+13	48
6	Leones de Rosario	31	+5	48
7	Centro Español	31	+14	47
8	Sacachispas	31	+6	47
9	Lugano	31	+7	46
10	Juventud Unida	31	+7	45
11	Estrella Del Sur	31	+2	45
12	Mercedes	31	+6	44
13	Victoriano Arenas	31	+5	44
14	General Lamadrid	31	−4	40
15	Sportivo Barracas	31	0	39
16	Central Ballester	31	−1	38
17	Puerto Nuevo	31	−7	38
18	Atletico Atlas	31	−4	37
19	El Porvenir	31	−5	37
20	Defensores de Cambaceres	31	−6	36
21	Yupanqui	31	−2	35
22	Fénix	31	−7	34
23	Claypole	31	−14	33
24	JJ Urquiza	31	−7	32
25	Deportivo Paraguayo	31	−16	32
26	Leandro N. Alem	31	−26	31
27	Deportivo Muñiz	31	−14	29
28	Argentino Rosario	31	−11	27