Villa San Carlos v Villa Dalmine prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Villa San Carlos 3–0 Villa Dalmine DRAW · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said a draw~~36%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.675

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.683

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 33–36–31
1′KICK-OFF Villa San Carlos v Villa Dalmine
3′A goal for Villa San Carlos on 3′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–20–11
3′⚽ GOAL · 3' Villa San Carlos 1–0 Villa Dalmine
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 3' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 20% now
3′THE CALL SWINGS · 3' Villa San Carlos win is now our likeliest result at 69% (was Draw 20%)
5′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 20%. 1–0 · 69–20–11
30′The goal count is tracking the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–7
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Villa San Carlos
32′🟨 YELLOW · 31' Villa Dalmine
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Villa San Carlos
45′HALF-TIME Villa San Carlos 1–0 Villa Dalmine
46′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
46′SECOND HALF Villa San Carlos 1–0 Villa Dalmine
47′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Villa San Carlos
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
63′Villa San Carlos score on 62′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
63′⚽ GOAL · 62' Villa San Carlos 2–0 Villa Dalmine
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 2% now
64′We said the draw at 36%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 2%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
68′Villa San Carlos find the net on 68′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Villa San Carlos 3–0 Villa Dalmine
70′3 goals already, more than the 1.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Villa San Carlos
74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Villa Dalmine
80′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Villa Dalmine
89′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Villa Dalmine · On: P. Spampinato · Off: M. Britos
89′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Villa Dalmine · On: V. Gargiulo · Off: M. Morales
89′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Villa Dalmine · On: P. Oro · Off: G. Torres
90′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Villa Dalmine · On: M. Solis · Off: V. Carlucci
90′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Villa Dalmine · On: T. Ponzo · Off: S. Prim
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Villa Dalmine
FTFULL TIME Villa San Carlos 3–0 Villa Dalmine
FTVilla San Carlos 3–0 Villa Dalmine · Draw: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Villa San Carlos 33%, draw 36%, Villa Dalmine 31%. Over 2.5 goals 28%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Villa San Carlos v Villa DalmineBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Villa San Carlos win33%

Draw36%

Villa Dalmine win31%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 40

VenueGenacio Salice Stadium

Line-ups

Villa San Carlos

Villa Dalmine

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villa San Carlos

Villa Dalmine

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Villa San Carlos

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Akimenco

4 A. Lloyaiy

2 A. Ponton

6 L. Machin

3 S. Canete

8 F. Farias

5 E. Gonzalez

10 F. Cairo

11 F. Mussis

7 A. Lugones

9 R. Salinas

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · P. Bangardino

13 · A. Martinez

14 · S. Fabi

15 · A. Acosta

16 · R. Alvarez

17 · J. Villagra

18 · Z. Zegarra

19 · M. Almiron

20 · M. Plastino

Villa Dalmine

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Rojas

4 M. Britos

2 M. Zurita

6 N. Agorreca

3 E. Ramon

7 M. Morales

8 V. Carlucci

5 M. Nizzo

10 S. Prim

11 G. Torres

9 M. Paez

Coach · Ariel Fuscaldo

Substitutes

12 · G. Friedrich

13 · P. Spampinato

14 · A. Nievas

15 · M. Solis

16 · V. Gargiulo

17 · G. Resquin

18 · T. Ponzo

19 · P. Oro

20 · F. Gimenez

Our number · drawFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market34%

Us36%

~~Market~~34%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The market has it at 34%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.9–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villa San Carlos v Villa Dalmine~~0.94 – 0.91

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D3 L1 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 47 v 65~~13 v 5

~~The market · Draw~~34% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villa San Carlos win	33%	33%	0
Draw	36%	34%	+2
Villa Dalmine win	31%	34%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	28%	29%	−1
Both teams to score	38%	38%	0
Over 1.5 goals	57%	55%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	12%	14%	−2
Villa San Carlos or draw	69%	66%	+3
Villa San Carlos clean sheet	41%	–	–
Villa Dalmine clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.7%

0123450 17.7 12.6 6.5 1 13.1 15.0 6.0 2 7.0 6.2 2.8 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villa San Carlos down, Villa Dalmine across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,204 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 429 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villa San Carlos at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Villa Dalmine away: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Villa San Carlos, 0.91 for Villa Dalmine. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~DAL 0–0 SAN · SAN 2–2 DAL · DAL 3–2 SAN · SAN 0–1 DAL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept

VILLA SAN CARLOS

DDDWWL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–4

VILLA DALMINE

LLWDLD0–1 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	+18	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
8	Real Pilar	39	+3	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	−4	52
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	−4	50
12	Dock Sud	39	−3	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45
15	Argentino de Merlo	39	−7	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
17	Liniers	39	−8	44
18	Brown DE Adrogue	39	−12	42
19	Flandria	39	−13	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41
21	UAI Urquiza	39	−13	38
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16