Villa San Carlos v Real Pilar prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Villa San CarlosDrawReal Pilar

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Pilar 34%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Real Pilar just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Villa San Carlos 32%, draw 34%, Real Pilar 34%. Over 2.5 goals 33%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Villa San Carlos v Real PilarBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Villa San Carlos win32%

Draw34%

Real Pilar win34%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 42

VenueGenacio Salice Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villa San Carlos

Real Pilar

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real pilar winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

34% The market–

Us34%

We make Real Pilar a 34% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villa San Carlos v Real Pilar~~1.00 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept~~W3 D2 L1 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 50 v 62~~12 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villa San Carlos win	32%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
Real Pilar win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	33%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Villa San Carlos or draw	66%	–	–
Villa San Carlos clean sheet	36%	–	–
Real Pilar clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 15.0%

0123450 15.0 11.8 7.0 2.4 1 11.4 15.0 6.9 2.4 2 6.5 6.7 3.5 3 2.2 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villa San Carlos down, Real Pilar across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,223 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.4% of games this season, across 448 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villa San Carlos at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Real Pilar away: 0.50 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.00 goals for Villa San Carlos, 1.04 for Real Pilar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~REA 1–1 VIL · REA 1–0 VIL · VIL 1–2 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept

VILLA SAN CARLOS

DDWWLW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 3–0

REAL PILAR

WLWLDW2–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	41	+37	81
2	Arsenal Sarandi	41	+28	76
3	Sportivo Italiano	41	+14	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	+16	68
5	Villa Dalmine	41	+13	68
6	Deportivo Camioneros	41	+14	67
7	Deportivo Armenio	41	+3	62
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
9	Deportivo Laferrere	41	−2	58
10	Comunicaciones	41	+4	57
11	San Martín Burzaco	41	−5	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
13	Flandria	41	−10	48
14	Deportivo Merlo	41	−15	48
15	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
16	Argentino de Merlo	41	−7	47
17	Argentino Quilmes	41	−7	47
18	Liniers	40	−8	45
19	Brown DE Adrogue	40	−12	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	−7	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	41	−39	17