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Villa Dalmine v San Martín Burzaco

Villa Dalmine

1–0Full time

San Martín Burzaco

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41

Villa Dalmine 1–0 San Martín Burzaco VILLA DALMINE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Villa Dalmine win~~41%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.523

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.358

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villa Dalmine win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Villa Dalmine was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–34–24
1′KICK-OFF Villa Dalmine v San Martín Burzaco
7′Villa Dalmine find the net on 6′. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–16–8
7′⚽ GOAL · 6' Villa Dalmine 1–0 San Martín Burzaco
7′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 7' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 76% now
8′We published Villa Dalmine at 41%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–17–8
22′Villa Dalmine ahead on 3′ through an own goal by M. Escudero. 1–0. 1–0 · 76–17–6
30′Goals are coming at about the 1.9 we expected. 1–0 · 77–17–6
45′HALF-TIME Villa Dalmine 1–0 San Martín Burzaco
46′We published Villa Dalmine at 41%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–4
46′🟨 YELLOW · 45+1' Villa Dalmine
46′SECOND HALF Villa Dalmine 1–0 San Martín Burzaco
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' San Martín Burzaco
51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 81% now
53′🟨 YELLOW · 42' T. Ponzo · Villa Dalmine
64′We published Villa Dalmine at 41%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
68′SUBSTITUTION · 60' San Martín Burzaco · On: N. A. Gauna · Off: T. Segura
69′SUBSTITUTION · 61' San Martín Burzaco · On: K. Denis · Off: J. Rodriguez
73′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Villa Dalmine
76′We published Villa Dalmine at 41%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 91% now
85′We published Villa Dalmine at 41%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–4–0
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' San Martín Burzaco
89′🟨 YELLOW · 70' M. Escudero · San Martín Burzaco
89′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Villa Dalmine · On: M. Nizzo · Off: S. Prim
89′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Villa Dalmine · On: V. Gargiulo · Off: G. Resquin
89′SUBSTITUTION · 75' San Martín Burzaco · On: C. Centurion · Off: M. Escudero
FTFULL TIME Villa Dalmine 1–0 San Martín Burzaco
FTVilla Dalmine 1–0 San Martín Burzaco · Villa Dalmine win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Villa Dalmine are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Villa Dalmine 41%, draw 34%, San Martín Burzaco 24%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Villa Dalmine v San Martín BurzacoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Villa Dalmine win41%

Draw34%

San Martín Burzaco win24%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 41

VenueEstadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Villa Dalmine

San Martín Burzaco

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Villa Dalmine	40	+12	65
11	San Martín Burzaco	40	−4	51

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · villa dalmine winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market51%

Us41%

~~Market~~51%

We make Villa Dalmine a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 10 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Villa Dalmine v San Martín Burzaco~~1.13 – 0.81

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 65 v 51~~6 v 11

~~The market · Villa Dalmine win~~51% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Villa Dalmine win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villa Dalmine win	41%	51%	−10
Draw	34%	29%	+5
San Martín Burzaco win	24%	20%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	31%	40%	−9
Both teams to score	39%	42%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	60%	63%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	13%	19%	−6
Villa Dalmine or draw	76%	80%	−4
Villa Dalmine clean sheet	45%	–	–
San Martín Burzaco clean sheet	32%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.2%

0123450 16.2 9.8 4.7 1 14.4 14.7 5.3 2 9.1 7.4 3.0 3 3.5 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villa Dalmine down, San Martín Burzaco across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,215 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games this season, across 440 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.20 goals a meeting; 0 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villa Dalmine at home: 0.83 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Martín Burzaco away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.13 goals for Villa Dalmine, 0.81 for San Martín Burzaco. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.20

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~SAN 0–2 VIL · SAN 1–0 VIL · VIL 1–1 SAN · VIL 0–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept

VILLA DALMINE

LWDLDL0–3 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–3

SAN MARTÍN BURZACO

WWLWLD2–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	40	+33	78
2	Arsenal Sarandi	40	+27	73
3	Sportivo Italiano	40	+18	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	+16	68
5	Deportivo Camioneros	40	+15	67
6	Villa Dalmine	40	+12	65
7	Deportivo Armenio	40	+4	62
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
9	Comunicaciones	40	+5	57
10	Deportivo Laferrere	40	−3	55
11	San Martín Burzaco	40	−4	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
13	Deportivo Merlo	40	−14	48
14	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
15	Liniers	40	−8	45
16	Flandria	40	−12	45
17	Argentino de Merlo	40	−8	44
18	Argentino Quilmes	40	−8	44
19	Brown DE Adrogue	40	−12	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	−7	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	40	−37	17