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Villa Dalmine v Liniers

Villa Dalmine

1–1Full time

Liniers

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Villa Dalmine 1–1 Liniers VILLA DALMINE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Villa Dalmine win~~41%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.637

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.780

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 35 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Villa Dalmine win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Villa Dalmine was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–33–25
9′Much as we predicted: Villa Dalmine was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–35–24
30′29′ and it is 1–0: Villa Dalmine have scored. 1–0 · 78–17–5
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 37' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
39′⚽ GOAL · 38' Villa Dalmine 1–1 Liniers
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 38% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Villa Dalmine win: 41% at kick-off, 78% now
45′HALF-TIME Villa Dalmine 1–1 Liniers
46′⚽ GOAL · 25' Villa Dalmine 1–1 Liniers · M. Nizzo
46′⚽ GOAL · 35' Villa Dalmine 1–1 Liniers · F. Moreno
46′SECOND HALF Villa Dalmine 1–1 Liniers
51′⚽ GOAL · 25' Villa Dalmine 1–1 Liniers · M. Nizzo
51′⚽ GOAL · 35' Villa Dalmine 1–1 Liniers · F. Moreno
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Liniers
64′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Liniers
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Villa Dalmine
73′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Villa Dalmine · On: V. Gargiulo · Off: M. Zurita
74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Villa Dalmine · On: V. Gargiulo · Off: M. Zurita
74′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Villa Dalmine · On: P. Oro · Off: M. Solis
75′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Villa Dalmine · On: P. Oro · Off: M. Solis
82′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Villa Dalmine · On: G. Resquin · Off: M. Paez
88′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Liniers · On: J. Tonet · Off: F. Moreno
88′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Villa Dalmine · On: G. Resquin · Off: M. Paez
89′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Liniers · On: F. Camejo · Off: E. Gallegos
90′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Liniers · On: F. Camejo · Off: E. Gallegos
FTFULL TIME Villa Dalmine 1–1 Liniers
FTVilla Dalmine 1–1 Liniers · Villa Dalmine win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Villa Dalmine win41%

Draw36%

Liniers win23%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Estadio El Coliseo de Mitre y Puccini

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Villa Dalmine

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Rojas

2 M. Zurita

3 E. Ramon

4 L. Gamba

5 M. Nizzo

6 N. Agorreca

7 M. Britos

8 M. Solis

9 M. Paez

10 S. Prim

11 A. Nievas

Coach · Ariel Fuscaldo

Substitutes

12 · G. Friedrich

13 · P. Spampinato

14 · T. Hassell

15 · V. Carlucci

16 · V. Gargiulo

17 · G. Gutierrez

18 · G. Resquin

19 · M. Morales

20 · P. Oro

Liniers

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Rotundo

2 B. Machuca

3 M. Fiordeliso

4 R. Di Motta

5 F. Rodon

6 J. Canosa

7 S. Palacio

8 A. Penoni

9 F. Moreno

10 E. Gallegos

11 G. Mackay

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · C. De Feliche

13 · S. Formichelli

14 · E. Pereyra

15 · U. Tejada

16 · J. Tonet

17 · F. Camejo

18 · J. Camejo

19 · T. Coria

20 · I. Sallaberry

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Villa Dalmine

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Rojas

2 M. Zurita

3 E. Ramon

4 L. Gamba

5 M. Nizzo

6 N. Agorreca

7 M. Britos

8 M. Solis

9 M. Paez

10 S. Prim

11 A. Nievas

Coach · Ariel Fuscaldo

Substitutes

12 · G. Friedrich

13 · P. Spampinato

14 · T. Hassell

15 · V. Carlucci

16 · V. Gargiulo

17 · G. Gutierrez

18 · G. Resquin

19 · M. Morales

20 · P. Oro

Liniers

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Rotundo

2 B. Machuca

3 M. Fiordeliso

4 R. Di Motta

5 F. Rodon

6 J. Canosa

7 S. Palacio

8 A. Penoni

9 F. Moreno

10 E. Gallegos

11 G. Mackay

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · C. De Feliche

13 · S. Formichelli

14 · E. Pereyra

15 · U. Tejada

16 · J. Tonet

17 · F. Camejo

18 · J. Camejo

19 · T. Coria

20 · I. Sallaberry

Our number · villa dalmine winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

41% The market50%

Us41%

~~Market~~50%

We make Villa Dalmine a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · villa dalmine win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Villa Dalmine win	41%	50%	−9
Draw	36%	30%	+6
Liniers win	23%	20%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	27%	36%	−10
Both teams to score	35%	41%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	55%	61%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	11%	19%	−8
Villa Dalmine or draw	77%	80%	−3
Villa Dalmine clean sheet	48%	–	–
Liniers clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.6%

0123450 18.6 10.6 4.5 1 16.0 14.4 4.7 2 9.3 6.7 2.5 3 3.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Villa Dalmine down, Liniers across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,195 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 420 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Villa Dalmine at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Liniers away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.06 goals for Villa Dalmine, 0.73 for Liniers. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~LIN 1–0 VIL · VIL 2–1 LIN · LIN 4–0 VIL · LIN 1–0 VIL

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana

VILLA DALMINE

DLLWDL0–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

LINIERS

DDWLLW1–1 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	38	+25	69
3	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	+17	65
5	Villa Dalmine	38	+15	64
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Real Pilar	38	+4	61
8	Deportivo Armenio	38	+4	60
9	Comunicaciones	38	+5	55
10	Deportivo Laferrere	38	−4	51
11	San Martín Burzaco	38	−2	50
12	Dock Sud	38	−2	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Argentino de Merlo	38	−6	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	38	−15	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	38	−7	43
17	Liniers	38	−8	43
18	Defensores Unidos	38	−6	41
19	Brown DE Adrogue	38	−13	39
20	Flandria	38	−14	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	−14	35
22	Ituzaingó	38	−37	15