UAI Urquiza v Villa San Carlos prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

UAI UrquizaDrawVilla San Carlos

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Draw 35%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: UAI Urquiza 33%, draw 35%, Villa San Carlos 32%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on UAI Urquiza v Villa San CarlosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

UAI Urquiza win33%

Draw35%

Villa San Carlos win32%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 41

VenueMonumental de Villa Lynch

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

UAI Urquiza

Villa San Carlos

9Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · drawFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

35% The market24%

Us35%

~~Market~~24%

We make the draw a 35% chance. The market has it at 24%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · UAI Urquiza v Villa San Carlos~~0.95 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 39 v 50~~21 v 12

~~The market · Draw~~24% · ours 35%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 35% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 24% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UAI Urquiza win	33%	62%	−29
Draw	35%	24%	+11
Villa San Carlos win	32%	14%	+18
Over 2.5 goals	29%	43%	−14
Both teams to score	39%	42%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	58%	69%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	12%	23%	−11
UAI Urquiza or draw	68%	86%	−18
UAI Urquiza clean sheet	40%	–	–
Villa San Carlos clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.1%

0123450 17.1 12.5 6.6 2.1 1 12.8 15.0 6.2 2 6.9 6.3 2.9 3 2.2 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UAI Urquiza down, Villa San Carlos across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,223 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.4% of games this season, across 448 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.70 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UAI Urquiza at home: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Villa San Carlos away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for UAI Urquiza, 0.93 for Villa San Carlos. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.70

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~VIL 0–0 UAI · VIL 3–0 UAI · UAI 1–1 VIL · UAI 1–0 VIL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept

UAI URQUIZA

LLDWWD0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

VILLA SAN CARLOS

DDWWLW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 0–4 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	41	+37	81
2	Arsenal Sarandi	41	+28	76
3	Sportivo Italiano	41	+14	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	+16	68
5	Villa Dalmine	41	+13	68
6	Deportivo Camioneros	41	+14	67
7	Deportivo Armenio	41	+3	62
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
9	Deportivo Laferrere	41	−2	58
10	Comunicaciones	41	+4	57
11	San Martín Burzaco	41	−5	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
13	Flandria	41	−10	48
14	Deportivo Merlo	41	−15	48
15	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
16	Argentino de Merlo	41	−7	47
17	Argentino Quilmes	41	−7	47
18	Liniers	40	−8	45
19	Brown DE Adrogue	40	−12	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	−7	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	41	−39	17