UAI Urquiza v Real Pilar prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

UAI Urquiza 1–0 Real Pilar REAL PILAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Pilar win~~39%

~~The market said~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.843

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.822

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Pilar win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Real Pilar 39% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 27–33–41
1′KICK-OFF UAI Urquiza v Real Pilar
3′Little has changed for our model: Real Pilar 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 27–33–40
5′Little has changed for our model: Real Pilar 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 26–34–40
45′HALF-TIME UAI Urquiza 0–0 Real Pilar
45′SECOND HALF UAI Urquiza 0–0 Real Pilar
82′⚽ GOAL · 82' UAI Urquiza 1–0 Real Pilar
89′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Real Pilar · On: J. Cesar · Off: V. Mancini Corrected
89′⚽ GOAL · 82' UAI Urquiza 1–0 Real Pilar · E. Diaz
90′⚽ GOAL · 82' UAI Urquiza 1–0 Real Pilar · E. Diaz
90′SUBSTITUTION · 80' UAI Urquiza · On: V. Ciancio · Off: V. Rodriguez
91′⚽ GOAL · 82' UAI Urquiza 1–0 Real Pilar · E. Diaz
FTFULL TIME UAI Urquiza 1–0 Real Pilar
FTUAI Urquiza 1–0 Real Pilar · Real Pilar win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

UAI Urquiza win25%

Draw36%

Real Pilar win39%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

VenueMonumental de Villa Lynch

Line-ups

UAI Urquiza

Real Pilar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

UAI Urquiza

Real Pilar

7Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Real Pilar	38	+4	61
21	UAI Urquiza	38	−14	35

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

UAI Urquiza

Formation not confirmed

1 I. Viain

4 V. Albano

2 V. Rodriguez

6 F. Postel

3 F. Prado

8 E. Ibanez

5 L. Arcuri

10 T. Asprea

11 V. Pesse

7 F. Galli

9 F. Mesa

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Rolon

13 · A. Caceres

14 · V. Ciancio

15 · N. Menendez

16 · N. Rios

17 · S. Scacchi

18 · R. Scarcella

19 · A. Marin

20 · E. Diaz

Real Pilar

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Perafan

4 D. Leguiza

2 V. Gelos

6 F. Abre

3 E. Franco

8 V. Mancini

5 F. Pansardi

10 D. Vergara

11 M. Crocco

7 B. Martin

9 E. Rodriguez

Coach · Gabriel Torres

Substitutes

12 · S. Sanchez

13 · D. Achucarro

14 · I. Smith

15 · N. Rios

16 · J. Cesar

17 · D. Gonzalez

18 · G. Isola

19 · T. Delari

20 · N. Avalos

Our number · real pilar winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

39% The market41%

Us39%

~~Market~~41%

We make Real Pilar a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 41%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.8–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · real pilar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
UAI Urquiza win	25%	26%	−1
Draw	36%	33%	+3
Real Pilar win	39%	41%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	27%	32%	−5
Both teams to score	36%	40%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	11%	17%	−6
UAI Urquiza or draw	61%	59%	+2
UAI Urquiza clean sheet	36%	–	–
Real Pilar clean sheet	46%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.3%

0123450 18.3 15.2 8.8 3.1 1 11.0 14.7 6.7 2.3 2 4.9 5.0 2.6 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+UAI Urquiza down, Real Pilar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,202 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.1% of games this season, across 427 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.67 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

UAI Urquiza at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Real Pilar away: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.77 goals for UAI Urquiza, 1.04 for Real Pilar. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.67

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~REA 2–1 UAI · UAI 0–1 REA · REA 2–2 UAI

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana

UAI URQUIZA

LWLLDW0–1 · 2–0 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–2

REAL PILAR

DLWWLW1–1 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	+18	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
8	Real Pilar	38	+4	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	−4	52
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	−4	50
12	Dock Sud	38	−2	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45
15	Argentino de Merlo	39	−7	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
17	Liniers	39	−8	44
18	Flandria	39	−13	42
19	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41
20	Brown DE Adrogue	38	−13	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	−14	35
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16