Sportivo Italiano v Arsenal Sarandi prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Sportivo Italiano 0–0 Arsenal Sarandi SPORTIVO ITALIANO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Sportivo Italiano win~~36%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.643

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.691

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Sportivo Italiano win at 36%.
1′Much as we predicted: Sportivo Italiano was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–35–30
1′KICK-OFF Sportivo Italiano v Arsenal Sarandi
19′THE CALL SWINGS · 19' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Sportivo Italiano win 33%)
45′HALF-TIME Sportivo Italiano 0–0 Arsenal Sarandi
46′SECOND HALF Sportivo Italiano 0–0 Arsenal Sarandi
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+5' Sportivo Italiano win: 36% at kick-off, 26% now
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Sportivo Italiano
55′We said Sportivo Italiano at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–54–21
66′We said Sportivo Italiano at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–64–17
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Sportivo Italiano win: 36% at kick-off, 16% now
74′We said Sportivo Italiano at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–73–13
78′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sportivo Italiano · On: F. Molina · Off: F. Gomez
78′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Sportivo Italiano · On: J. De Cuadro · Off: K. Gimenez
78′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Sportivo Italiano
81′We said Sportivo Italiano at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–83–8
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Sportivo Italiano win: 36% at kick-off, 6% now
88′We said Sportivo Italiano at 36%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
FTFULL TIME Sportivo Italiano 0–0 Arsenal Sarandi
FTSportivo Italiano 0–0 Arsenal Sarandi · Sportivo Italiano win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Sportivo Italiano just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Sportivo Italiano 36%, draw 35%, Arsenal Sarandi 30%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Sportivo Italiano v Arsenal SarandiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Sportivo Italiano win36%

Draw35%

Arsenal Sarandi win30%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 40

VenueRepublica de Italia Stadium

Line-ups

Sportivo Italiano

Arsenal Sarandi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Sportivo Italiano

Arsenal Sarandi

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	+18	68

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Sportivo Italiano

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Yordan

2 C. Ordonez

3 A. Daivez

4 C. Bifiguer

5 J. Rivero

6 E. Merzario

7 L. Laborda

8 F. Centurion

9 P. Caceres

10 F. Gomez

11 K. Gimenez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · A. Alastra

13 · F. Di Massimo

14 · P. Durante

15 · L. Guzman

16 · A. Guerra

17 · R. Fortino

18 · T. Hirigoyen

19 · J. De Cuadro

20 · F. Molina

Arsenal Sarandi

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Lobelos

2 N. Brienzo

3 J. Goncebat

4 A. Payes

5 J. Vila

6 I. Peralta

7 N. Frascone

8 M. Lucero

9 L. Franco

10 M. Sosa

11 M. Del Col

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Pezzini

13 · R. Caceres

14 · A. Antilef

15 · A. Vega

16 · I. Cabrera

17 · M. Trombini

18 · U. La Roza

19 · E. Wrubel

20 · J. Ochoa

Our number · sportivo italiano winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:30 · locked at kick-off

36% The market36%

Us36%

~~Market~~36%

We make Sportivo Italiano a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are level with the market. The model expects 1.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Sportivo Italiano v Arsenal Sarandi~~1.03 – 0.92

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 68 v 72~~3 v 2

~~The market · Sportivo Italiano win~~36% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Sportivo Italiano win The market, margin stripped

Published at 35%, 36% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 36% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Sportivo Italiano win	36%	36%	0
Draw	35%	32%	+3
Arsenal Sarandi win	30%	32%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	31%	39%	−8
Both teams to score	40%	47%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	14%	21%	−7
Sportivo Italiano or draw	70%	68%	+2
Sportivo Italiano clean sheet	40%	–	–
Arsenal Sarandi clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.1%

0123450 16.1 11.4 6.0 1 12.9 15.0 6.1 2 7.5 6.8 3.2 3 2.6 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Sportivo Italiano down, Arsenal Sarandi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,204 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 429 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Sportivo Italiano at home: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Arsenal Sarandi away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.03 goals for Sportivo Italiano, 0.92 for Arsenal Sarandi. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ARS 1–3 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept

SPORTIVO ITALIANO

WLDWWW3–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1

ARSENAL SARANDI

WWLWLW1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	+18	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
8	Real Pilar	39	+3	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	−4	52
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	−4	50
12	Dock Sud	39	−3	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45
15	Argentino de Merlo	39	−7	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
17	Liniers	39	−8	44
18	Brown DE Adrogue	39	−12	42
19	Flandria	39	−13	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41
21	UAI Urquiza	39	−13	38
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16