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San Martín Burzaco v UAI Urquiza

San Martín Burzaco

20:00Upcoming

UAI Urquiza

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 31 OCT · Francisco Boga Stadium

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

San Martín BurzacoDrawUAI Urquiza

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · San Martín Burzaco 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Martín Burzaco are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Martín Burzaco 44%, draw 34%, UAI Urquiza 23%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on San Martín Burzaco v UAI UrquizaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

San Martín Burzaco win44%

Draw34%

UAI Urquiza win23%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 42

VenueFrancisco Boga Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Martín Burzaco

UAI Urquiza

7Days since last match14

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	San Martín Burzaco	41	−5	51
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san martín burzaco winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make San Martín Burzaco a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–0.8, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 16%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Martín Burzaco v UAI Urquiza~~1.18 – 0.77

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 51 v 39~~11 v 21

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Martín Burzaco win	44%	–	–
Draw	34%	–	–
UAI Urquiza win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	31%	–	–
Both teams to score	39%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	60%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	14%	–	–
San Martín Burzaco or draw	77%	–	–
San Martín Burzaco clean sheet	46%	–	–
UAI Urquiza clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.0%

0123450 16.0 9.3 4.3 1 15.1 14.4 5.0 2 9.8 7.5 2.9 3 3.9 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Martín Burzaco down, UAI Urquiza across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,223 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.4% of games this season, across 448 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Martín Burzaco at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). UAI Urquiza away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for San Martín Burzaco, 0.77 for UAI Urquiza. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~UAI 0–0 SAN · SAN 5–0 UAI · UAI 2–1 SAN · UAI 1–0 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept

SAN MARTÍN BURZACO

WLWLDL2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–3 · 1–1 · 0–1

UAI URQUIZA

LLDWWD0–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	41	+37	81
2	Arsenal Sarandi	41	+28	76
3	Sportivo Italiano	41	+14	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	+16	68
5	Villa Dalmine	41	+13	68
6	Deportivo Camioneros	41	+14	67
7	Deportivo Armenio	41	+3	62
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
9	Deportivo Laferrere	41	−2	58
10	Comunicaciones	41	+4	57
11	San Martín Burzaco	41	−5	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
13	Flandria	41	−10	48
14	Deportivo Merlo	41	−15	48
15	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
16	Argentino de Merlo	41	−7	47
17	Argentino Quilmes	41	−7	47
18	Liniers	40	−8	45
19	Brown DE Adrogue	40	−12	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	−7	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	41	−39	17