San Martín Burzaco v Excursionistas prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

San Martín Burzaco 1–1 Excursionistas EXCURSIONISTAS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Excursionistas win~~41%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.742

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.811

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Excursionistas win at 41%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Excursionistas 41% before kick-off, 41% now. 0–0 · 29–30–41
1′KICK-OFF San Martín Burzaco v Excursionistas
5′San Martín Burzaco score on 5′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 59–21–19
5′We said Excursionistas at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–0 · 59–21–19
5′⚽ GOAL · 5' San Martín Burzaco 1–0 Excursionistas
5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' Excursionistas win: 41% at kick-off, 19% now
5′THE CALL SWINGS · 5' San Martín Burzaco win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was Excursionistas win 19%)
27′We said Excursionistas at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 63–23–14
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Excursionistas
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Excursionistas win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 45+7' Excursionistas
45′HALF-TIME San Martín Burzaco 1–0 Excursionistas
46′SECOND HALF San Martín Burzaco 1–0 Excursionistas
47′We said Excursionistas at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 68–23–9
50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' San Martín Burzaco
60′Excursionistas find the net on 60′. 1–1. 1–1 · 21–52–27
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' San Martín Burzaco 1–1 Excursionistas
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Excursionistas win: 41% at kick-off, 27% now
60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 52% (was San Martín Burzaco win 21%)
61′We said Excursionistas at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 27%. 1–1 · 21–53–27
64′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Excursionistas · On: W. Gimenez · Off: M. Blanco
64′SUBSTITUTION · 54' Excursionistas · On: M. Polvera · Off: G. Tellas
66′We said Excursionistas at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 19–58–24
66′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Excursionistas
68′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Excursionistas · On: M. Lopez · Off: N. Damiolini
68′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Excursionistas · On: M. Cardozo · Off: G. Zoratti
68′SUBSTITUTION · 62' San Martín Burzaco · On: L. Geneiro · Off: L. Lezcano
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Excursionistas win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Excursionistas win: 41% at kick-off, 10% now
90′We said Excursionistas at 41%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 3–92–4
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Excursionistas win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME San Martín Burzaco 1–1 Excursionistas
FTSan Martín Burzaco 1–1 Excursionistas · Excursionistas win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Excursionistas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Martín Burzaco 29%, draw 30%, Excursionistas 41%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on San Martín Burzaco v ExcursionistasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

San Martín Burzaco win29%

Draw30%

Excursionistas win41%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 40

VenueFrancisco Boga Stadium

Line-ups

San Martín Burzaco

Excursionistas

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Martín Burzaco

Excursionistas

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

San Martín Burzaco

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Gagliardo

2 D. Orellana

3 A. Siliman

4 L. Lezcano

5 R. Gonzalez

6 R. Lazarev

7 E. Zagert

8 K. Denis

9 B. Chavez

10 R. Velazquez

11 N. A. Gauna

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Marchesi

13 · J. Tobon

14 · N. Barrera

15 · L. Geneiro

16 · M. Escudero

17 · T. Segura

18 · L. Costa

19 · E. Treppo

20 · C. Cuenca

Excursionistas

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Rodriguez

4 M. Fernandez

2 D. Ledesma

6 G. Pedrosa

3 M. Arango

5 G. Zoratti

8 A. Avalos

7 N. Damiolini

10 A. Espeche

11 M. Blanco

9 G. Tellas

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Blengio

13 · G. Rodriguez

14 · A. Paulides

15 · L. Chambi

16 · M. Lopez

17 · M. Cardozo

18 · M. Alaniz

19 · W. Gimenez

20 · M. Polvera

Our number · excursionistas winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

41% The market50%

Us41%

~~Market~~50%

We make Excursionistas a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Martín Burzaco v Excursionistas~~1.12 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 50 v 77~~11 v 1

~~The market · Excursionistas win~~50% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Excursionistas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Martín Burzaco win	29%	22%	+7
Draw	30%	28%	+2
Excursionistas win	41%	50%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	45%	41%	+4
Both teams to score	51%	45%	+6
Over 1.5 goals	72%	66%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	24%	22%	+2
San Martín Burzaco or draw	59%	50%	+9
San Martín Burzaco clean sheet	26%	–	–
Excursionistas clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 10.1 9.8 7.8 3.6 1 7.7 14.2 8.6 3.9 2 5.2 7.0 4.8 2.2 3 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Martín Burzaco down, Excursionistas across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,204 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 429 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Martín Burzaco at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Excursionistas away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.12 goals for San Martín Burzaco, 1.37 for Excursionistas. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~EXC 2–0 SAN · EXC 4–2 SAN · SAN 0–1 EXC · EXC 4–2 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept

SAN MARTÍN BURZACO

DWWLWL0–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1 · 1–3

EXCURSIONISTAS

WWWWLW2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 4–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	+18	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
8	Real Pilar	39	+3	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	−4	52
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	−4	50
12	Dock Sud	39	−3	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45
15	Argentino de Merlo	39	−7	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
17	Liniers	39	−8	44
18	Brown DE Adrogue	39	−12	42
19	Flandria	39	−13	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41
21	UAI Urquiza	39	−13	38
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16