Real Pilar v Liniers prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Real PilarDrawLiniers

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 23:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Real Pilar 45%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Pilar are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Pilar 45%, draw 33%, Liniers 21%. Over 2.5 goals 32%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on Real Pilar v LiniersBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Real Pilar win45%

Draw33%

Liniers win21%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 41

VenueMunicipal de Pilar-Carlos Barraza

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Pilar

Liniers

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
15	Liniers	40	−8	45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · real pilar winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:02 · locked at kick-off

45% The market48%

Us45%

~~Market~~48%

We make Real Pilar a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Pilar v Liniers~~1.21 – 0.76

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 11 Sept~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 62 v 45~~8 v 15

~~The market · Real Pilar win~~48% · ours 45%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Pilar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 45% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Pilar win	45%	48%	−3
Draw	33%	30%	+3
Liniers win	21%	22%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	32%	37%	−5
Both teams to score	39%	42%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	60%	61%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	14%	21%	−7
Real Pilar or draw	79%	78%	+1
Real Pilar clean sheet	47%	–	–
Liniers clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.9%

0123450 15.9 8.8 4.0 1 15.2 14.3 4.8 2 10.2 7.7 2.9 3 4.2 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Pilar down, Liniers across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,215 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games this season, across 440 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.60 goals a meeting; 2 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Pilar at home: 1.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Liniers away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.21 goals for Real Pilar, 0.76 for Liniers. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.60

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LIN 0–1 REA · LIN 1–0 REA · REA 1–3 LIN · LIN 1–1 REA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 11 Sept

REAL PILAR

WWLWLD1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

LINIERS

WLLWDD2–0 · 1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	40	+33	78
2	Arsenal Sarandi	40	+27	73
3	Sportivo Italiano	40	+18	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	+16	68
5	Deportivo Camioneros	40	+15	67
6	Villa Dalmine	40	+12	65
7	Deportivo Armenio	40	+4	62
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
9	Comunicaciones	40	+5	57
10	Deportivo Laferrere	40	−3	55
11	San Martín Burzaco	40	−4	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
13	Deportivo Merlo	40	−14	48
14	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
15	Liniers	40	−8	45
16	Flandria	40	−12	45
17	Argentino de Merlo	40	−8	44
18	Argentino Quilmes	40	−8	44
19	Brown DE Adrogue	40	−12	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	−7	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	40	−37	17