Real Pilar v Ituzaingó prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Real Pilar 0–0 Ituzaingó REAL PILAR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Real Pilar win~~61%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.934

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.107

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Real Pilar win at 61%.
1′Much as we predicted: Real Pilar was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–26–13
1′KICK-OFF Real Pilar v Ituzaingó
33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Real Pilar
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Real Pilar win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
41′We said Real Pilar at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–39–13
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Ituzaingó
45′HALF-TIME Real Pilar 0–0 Ituzaingó
46′SECOND HALF Real Pilar 0–0 Ituzaingó
48′We said Real Pilar at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–43–13
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 55' Real Pilar win: 61% at kick-off, 40% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was Real Pilar win 40%)
56′We said Real Pilar at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–48–12
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Ituzaingó
64′We said Real Pilar at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 33%. 0–0 · 33–56–11
64′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Ituzaingó
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Real Pilar win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
69′We said Real Pilar at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–62–10
74′We said Real Pilar at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 0–0 · 23–68–8
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Real Pilar win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
78′We said Real Pilar at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–75–7
80′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Real Pilar · On: J. Cesar · Off: D. Vergara
84′We said Real Pilar at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 10%. 0–0 · 10–86–4
84′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Real Pilar · On: D. Gonzalez · Off: E. Franco
84′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Real Pilar · On: M. Rojas · Off: M. Crocco
84′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 84' Real Pilar win: 61% at kick-off, 10% now
86′We said Real Pilar at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–88–3
88′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Ituzaingó · On: N. Santiago · Off: H. Sala
89′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Pilar · On: I. Smith · Off: B. Martin
89′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Real Pilar · On: R. Aguilar · Off: E. Rodriguez
89′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Ituzaingó · On: A. Sotelo · Off: J. Maza
92′We said Real Pilar at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–95–1
FTFULL TIME Real Pilar 0–0 Ituzaingó
FTReal Pilar 0–0 Ituzaingó · Real Pilar win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Real Pilar are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Real Pilar 61%, draw 26%, Ituzaingó 13%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Real Pilar v ItuzaingóBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Real Pilar win61%

Draw26%

Ituzaingó win13%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 40

VenueMunicipal de Pilar-Carlos Barraza

Line-ups

Real Pilar

Ituzaingó

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Real Pilar

Ituzaingó

5Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Real Pilar	39	+3	61
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Real Pilar

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Perafan

2 V. Gelos

3 E. Franco

4 D. Leguiza

5 F. Pansardi

6 F. Abre

7 B. Martin

8 V. Mancini

9 E. Rodriguez

10 D. Vergara

11 M. Crocco

Coach · Gabriel Torres

Substitutes

12 · S. Sanchez

13 · N. Basualdo

14 · G. Isola

15 · N. Rios

16 · J. Cesar

17 · D. Gonzalez

18 · I. Smith

19 · R. Aguilar

20 · M. Rojas

Ituzaingó

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Almiron

2 J. Martinez

3 M. Bermejo

5 P. Desposito

6 R. Politano

7 J. Fanti

15 J. Salvadores

9 J. Odunukwe

10 J. Maza

11 H. Sala

4 L. Garcia

Coach · Diego Herrero

Substitutes

13 · E. Mantovani

14 · I. Regules

8 · J. Fernandez

16 · T. Barea

17 · A. Sotelo

18 · N. Santiago

19 · S. Gras

20 · A. Miranda

12 · L. Barraza

Our number · real pilar winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 13 Oct 05:30 · locked at kick-off

61% The market69%

Us61%

~~Market~~69%

We make Real Pilar a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Real Pilar v Ituzaingó~~1.69 – 0.65

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept~~W3 D0 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 61 v 16~~8 v 22

~~The market · Real Pilar win~~69% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Real Pilar win The market, margin stripped

Published at 62%, 61% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Real Pilar win	61%	69%	−8
Draw	26%	21%	+5
Ituzaingó win	13%	10%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	41%	45%	−4
Both teams to score	40%	38%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
Real Pilar or draw	87%	90%	−3
Real Pilar clean sheet	53%	–	–
Ituzaingó clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 15.0%

0123450 11.2 4.9 2.1 1 15.0 11.8 3.4 2 13.7 8.8 2.8 3 7.7 5.0 4 3.3 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Real Pilar down, Ituzaingó across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,204 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 429 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.20 goals a meeting; 1 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Real Pilar at home: 1.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Ituzaingó away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Real Pilar, 0.65 for Ituzaingó. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.20

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ITU 2–0 REA · ITU 0–0 REA · REA 0–0 ITU · REA 0–1 ITU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept

REAL PILAR

LWWLWL0–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 2–0 · 0–1

ITUZAINGÓ

LDLLLD1–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	+18	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
8	Real Pilar	39	+3	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	40	−3	55
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	−4	50
12	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Liniers	40	−8	45
15	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45
16	Argentino de Merlo	39	−7	44
17	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
18	Brown DE Adrogue	39	−12	42
19	Flandria	39	−13	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16