Liniers v Ituzaingó prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LiniersDrawItuzaingó

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Liniers 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Liniers are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Liniers 54%, draw 29%, Ituzaingó 17%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Liniers v ItuzaingóBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Liniers win54%

Draw29%

Ituzaingó win17%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 42

VenueJuan Antonio Arias Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Liniers

Ituzaingó

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
18	Liniers	40	−8	45
22	Ituzaingó	41	−39	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · liniers winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Liniers a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–0.7, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Liniers v Ituzaingó~~1.50 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 19 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 45 v 17~~18 v 22

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Liniers win	54%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Ituzaingó win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	39%	–	–
Both teams to score	42%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	19%	–	–
Liniers or draw	83%	–	–
Liniers clean sheet	48%	–	–
Ituzaingó clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%

0123450 12.3 6.4 2.9 1 14.4 13.1 4.3 2 11.9 8.7 3.2 3 6.0 4.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Liniers down, Ituzaingó across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,223 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.4% of games this season, across 448 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Liniers at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Ituzaingó away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.50 goals for Liniers, 0.74 for Ituzaingó. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ITU 1–1 LIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 19 Sept

LINIERS

LLWDDL1–2 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 1–2

ITUZAINGÓ

LLLDDL1–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–0 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	41	+37	81
2	Arsenal Sarandi	41	+28	76
3	Sportivo Italiano	41	+14	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	+16	68
5	Villa Dalmine	41	+13	68
6	Deportivo Camioneros	41	+14	67
7	Deportivo Armenio	41	+3	62
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
9	Deportivo Laferrere	41	−2	58
10	Comunicaciones	41	+4	57
11	San Martín Burzaco	41	−5	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
13	Flandria	41	−10	48
14	Deportivo Merlo	41	−15	48
15	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
16	Argentino de Merlo	41	−7	47
17	Argentino Quilmes	41	−7	47
18	Liniers	40	−8	45
19	Brown DE Adrogue	40	−12	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	−7	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	41	−39	17