Home › Football › Primera B Metropolitana › Ituzaingó v Flandria

Ituzaingó v Flandria

Ituzaingó

1–3Full time

Flandria

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 24 OCT · Estadio Carlos Sacaan

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41

Ituzaingó 1–3 Flandria FLANDRIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Flandria win~~39%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.563

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.284

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Flandria win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Flandria 39% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 27–35–39
1′KICK-OFF Ituzaingó v Flandria
12′A goal for Ituzaingó on 11′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 63–23–15
12′⚽ GOAL · 11' Ituzaingó 1–0 Flandria
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' Flandria win: 39% at kick-off, 15% now
12′THE CALL SWINGS · 12' Ituzaingó win is now our likeliest result at 63% (was Flandria win 38%)
13′We said Flandria at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 63–23–14
14′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Flandria
29′Flandria score on 28′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–41–34
29′⚽ GOAL · 28' Ituzaingó 1–1 Flandria
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Flandria win: 39% at kick-off, 34% now
29′THE CALL SWINGS · 29' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Ituzaingó win 65%)
32′GOAL DISALLOWED · 32' Flandria
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Flandria win: 39% at kick-off, 10% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Ituzaingó win is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Draw 41%)
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Flandria win: 39% at kick-off, 9% now
45′HALF-TIME Ituzaingó 1–0 Flandria
46′SECOND HALF Ituzaingó 1–0 Flandria
55′Flandria score on 55′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 20–54–26
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Ituzaingó 1–1 Flandria
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Flandria win: 39% at kick-off, 26% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 54% (was Ituzaingó win 74%)
56′We said Flandria at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 26%. 1–1 · 19–55–26
59′We said Flandria at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 18–57–24
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Flandria
68′We said Flandria at 39%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–66–19
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Flandria win: 39% at kick-off, 19% now
77′Flandria find the net on 76′. 1–2. 1–2 · 1–9–90
77′We said Flandria at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
77′⚽ GOAL · 76' Ituzaingó 1–2 Flandria
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Flandria win: 39% at kick-off, 90% now
77′THE CALL SWINGS · 77' Flandria win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 74%)
78′3 goals already, more than the 2.0 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 1–9–91
79′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ituzaingó · On: A. Sotelo · Off: J. Salvadores
79′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Ituzaingó · On: N. Santiago · Off: H. Sala
85′We said Flandria at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
92′A goal for Flandria on 90′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
92′We said Flandria at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Ituzaingó 1–3 Flandria
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Flandria win: 39% at kick-off, over 99% now
94′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.0 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME Ituzaingó 1–3 Flandria
FTItuzaingó 1–3 Flandria · Flandria win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Flandria are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Ituzaingó 27%, draw 34%, Flandria 39%. Over 2.5 goals 31%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Ituzaingó v FlandriaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Ituzaingó win27%

Draw34%

Flandria win39%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 41

VenueEstadio Carlos Sacaan

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Ituzaingó

Flandria

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Flandria	40	−12	45
22	Ituzaingó	40	−37	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · flandria winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 18 Oct 02:02 · locked at kick-off

39% The market57%

Us39%

~~Market~~57%

We make Flandria a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 18 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Ituzaingó v Flandria~~0.86 – 1.10

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 11 Sept~~W0 D3 L3 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 17 v 45~~22 v 16

~~The market · Flandria win~~57% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Flandria win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ituzaingó win	27%	17%	+10
Draw	34%	27%	+7
Flandria win	39%	57%	−18
Over 2.5 goals	31%	41%	−10
Both teams to score	40%	41%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	60%	65%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	14%	20%	−6
Ituzaingó or draw	61%	43%	+18
Ituzaingó clean sheet	34%	–	–
Flandria clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.1%

0123450 16.1 13.6 8.5 3.1 1 10.3 14.9 7.2 2.7 2 5.3 5.7 3.1 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ituzaingó down, Flandria across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,215 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games this season, across 440 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ituzaingó at home: 0.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Flandria away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Ituzaingó, 1.10 for Flandria. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FLA 3–2 ITU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 11 Sept

ITUZAINGÓ

DLLLDD2–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–3 · 2–2 · 0–0

FLANDRIA

WLLDWW2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	40	+33	78
2	Arsenal Sarandi	40	+27	73
3	Sportivo Italiano	40	+18	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	+16	68
5	Deportivo Camioneros	40	+15	67
6	Villa Dalmine	40	+12	65
7	Deportivo Armenio	40	+4	62
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
9	Comunicaciones	40	+5	57
10	Deportivo Laferrere	40	−3	55
11	San Martín Burzaco	40	−4	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
13	Deportivo Merlo	40	−14	48
14	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
15	Liniers	40	−8	45
16	Flandria	40	−12	45
17	Argentino de Merlo	40	−8	44
18	Argentino Quilmes	40	−8	44
19	Brown DE Adrogue	40	−12	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	−7	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	40	−37	17