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Ituzaingó v Argentino Quilmes

Ituzaingó

2–2Full time

Argentino Quilmes

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Carlos Sacaan

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Ituzaingó 2–2 Argentino Quilmes ARGENTINO QUILMES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Argentino Quilmes win~~43%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.694

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.786

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Argentino Quilmes win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Argentino Quilmes was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 26–30–44
1′KICK-OFF Ituzaingó v Argentino Quilmes
8′Much as we predicted: Argentino Quilmes was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 25–31–43
31′⚽ GOAL · 30' Ituzaingó 0–1 Argentino Quilmes
45′HALF-TIME Ituzaingó 0–1 Argentino Quilmes
46′SECOND HALF Ituzaingó 0–1 Argentino Quilmes
50′⚽ GOAL · 30' Ituzaingó 0–1 Argentino Quilmes · M. Compagnucci
50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Argentino Quilmes
55′⚽ GOAL · 30' Ituzaingó 0–2 Argentino Quilmes · M. Compagnucci
55′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Argentino Quilmes
55′⚽ GOAL · 54' Ituzaingó 0–2 Argentino Quilmes
57′🟨 YELLOW · 57' Argentino Quilmes
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ituzaingó · On: A. Sotelo · Off: J. Fernandez
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Ituzaingó · On: N. Santiago · Off: H. Sala
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ituzaingó · On: S. Gras · Off: J. Odunukwe
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Ituzaingó · On: Moreira · Off: J. Maza Corrected
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Ituzaingó 1–2 Argentino Quilmes
85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Argentino Quilmes
86′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Argentino Quilmes
86′⚽ GOAL · 86' Ituzaingó 2–2 Argentino Quilmes
FTFULL TIME Ituzaingó 2–2 Argentino Quilmes
FTItuzaingó 2–2 Argentino Quilmes · Argentino Quilmes win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Ituzaingó win24%

Draw33%

Argentino Quilmes win43%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Estadio Carlos Sacaan

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Ituzaingó

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Almiron

2 J. Martinez

3 M. Bermejo

4 L. Garcia

5 P. Desposito

6 R. Politano

7 J. Fanti

8 J. Fernandez

9 J. Odunukwe

10 J. Maza

11 H. Sala

Coach · Diego Herrero

Substitutes

12 · L. Barraza

13 · E. Mantovani

14 · I. Regules

15 · J. Salvadores

16 · T. Barea

17 · A. Sotelo

18 · N. Santiago

19 · S. Gras

20 · A. Miranda

Argentino Quilmes

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Yzaurralde

2 J. Cettou

3 R. Barreto

4 F. Lando

5 M. Vega

6 E. Zarate

7 M. Ceccotti

8 N. Sanchez

9 M. Compagnucci

10 E. Torancio

11 E. Diez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · G. Cheppi

13 · F. Cosciuc

14 · F. Filliol

15 · J. Kruger

16 · L. Escudero

17 · A. Cecconato

18 · L. Filosa

19 · J. Martinez

20 · M. Gomez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Ituzaingó

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Almiron

2 J. Martinez

3 M. Bermejo

4 L. Garcia

5 P. Desposito

6 R. Politano

7 J. Fanti

8 J. Fernandez

9 J. Odunukwe

10 J. Maza

11 H. Sala

Coach · Diego Herrero

Substitutes

12 · L. Barraza

13 · E. Mantovani

14 · I. Regules

15 · J. Salvadores

16 · T. Barea

17 · A. Sotelo

18 · N. Santiago

19 · S. Gras

20 · A. Miranda

Argentino Quilmes

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Yzaurralde

2 J. Cettou

3 R. Barreto

4 F. Lando

5 M. Vega

6 E. Zarate

7 M. Ceccotti

8 N. Sanchez

9 M. Compagnucci

10 E. Torancio

11 E. Diez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · G. Cheppi

13 · F. Cosciuc

14 · F. Filliol

15 · J. Kruger

16 · L. Escudero

17 · A. Cecconato

18 · L. Filosa

19 · J. Martinez

20 · M. Gomez

Our number · argentino quilmes winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

43% The market50%

Us43%

~~Market~~50%

We make Argentino Quilmes a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · argentino quilmes win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 41% to 50% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Ituzaingó win	24%	21%	+4
Draw	33%	30%	+3
Argentino Quilmes win	43%	50%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	34%	38%	−3
Both teams to score	42%	43%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	63%	62%	0
Over 3.5 goals	16%	21%	−5
Ituzaingó or draw	57%	50%	+7
Ituzaingó clean sheet	30%	–	–
Argentino Quilmes clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.6%

0123450 14.5 13.6 9.3 3.8 1 9.1 14.6 7.8 3.2 2 4.6 5.5 3.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Ituzaingó down, Argentino Quilmes across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,195 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 420 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Ituzaingó at home: 0.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Argentino Quilmes away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.86 goals for Ituzaingó, 1.22 for Argentino Quilmes. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ARG 2–0 ITU · ARG 1–0 ITU · ITU 2–0 ARG · ARG 1–2 ITU

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana

ITUZAINGÓ

LLDLLL0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 2–3

ARGENTINO QUILMES

LLWDDD0–2 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	38	+25	69
3	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	+17	65
5	Villa Dalmine	38	+15	64
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Real Pilar	38	+4	61
8	Deportivo Armenio	38	+4	60
9	Comunicaciones	38	+5	55
10	Deportivo Laferrere	38	−4	51
11	San Martín Burzaco	38	−2	50
12	Dock Sud	38	−2	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Argentino de Merlo	38	−6	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	38	−15	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	38	−7	43
17	Liniers	38	−8	43
18	Defensores Unidos	38	−6	41
19	Brown DE Adrogue	38	−13	39
20	Flandria	38	−14	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	−14	35
22	Ituzaingó	38	−37	15