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Flandria v Defensores Unidos

Flandria

1–0Full time

Defensores Unidos

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Carlos V

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Flandria 1–0 Defensores Unidos FLANDRIA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Flandria win~~37%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.598

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.461

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 36 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Flandria win at 37%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Flandria 37% before kick-off, 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–29
9′Little has changed for our model: Flandria 37% before kick-off, 37% now. 0–0 · 37–34–28
30′A goal for Flandria on 27′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 74–19–6
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Flandria win: 37% at kick-off, 74% now
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Flandria win: 37% at kick-off, 35% now
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Flandria
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Defensores Unidos
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' Flandria win: 37% at kick-off, 74% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Flandria win: 37% at kick-off, 35% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Flandria win: 37% at kick-off, 35% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' Flandria win: 37% at kick-off, 74% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Flandria win: 37% at kick-off, 35% now
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Flandria win: 37% at kick-off, 74% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Flandria win: 37% at kick-off, 74% now
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Flandria win: 37% at kick-off, 35% now
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Flandria win: 37% at kick-off, 74% now
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Flandria win: 37% at kick-off, 74% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Flandria win: 37% at kick-off, 74% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Defensores Unidos
45′PENALTY MISSED · 48' Flandria
45′HALF-TIME Flandria 1–0 Defensores Unidos
45′PENALTY MISSED · 25' M. Donato · Flandria
45′⚽ GOAL · 25' Flandria 1–0 Defensores Unidos · M. Donato
45′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Flandria
45′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Defensores Unidos
45′PENALTY MISSED · 44' G. Calabria · Flandria
46′SECOND HALF Flandria 1–0 Defensores Unidos
50′PENALTY MISSED · 25' M. Donato · Flandria
50′⚽ GOAL · 25' Flandria 1–0 Defensores Unidos · M. Donato
50′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Flandria
50′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Defensores Unidos
50′PENALTY MISSED · 44' G. Calabria · Flandria
50′🟨 YELLOW · 46' Defensores Unidos
77′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Flandria · On: M. Vasconcelo · Off: M. Lopez Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Flandria · On: B. Gimenez · Off: M. Donato Corrected
78′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Flandria · On: F. Real · Off: D. Spitale
83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Flandria
90′🟨 YELLOW · 80' A. Nalerio · Flandria
FTFULL TIME Flandria 1–0 Defensores Unidos
FTFlandria 1–0 Defensores Unidos · Flandria win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Flandria win37%

Draw36%

Defensores Unidos win27%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Estadio Carlos V

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Flandria

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Ramos

4 M. Correa

2 A. Nalerio

6 M. Lopez

3 D. Spitale

5 B. Gonzalez

8 A. Dulon

10 F. Costa

11 M. Lopez

9 M. Donato

7 G. Calabria

Coach · Arnaldo Sialle

Substitutes

12 · L. Szalich

13 · F. Ruiz

14 · S. Negri

15 · F. Real

16 · M. Vasconcelo

17 · A. Casal

18 · M. Jaureguiberrey

19 · B. Gimenez

20 · T. Echague

Defensores Unidos

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Henricot

4 M. N. Alarcon

2 J. Lopez

6 F. Suarez

3 M. Rapetti

8 J. Tello

5 A. Baigorria

10 M. Gimenez

11 A. Sombra

7 T. Girard

9 B. Carboni

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · F. Salerno

13 · S. Iribarne

14 · T. Ferreyra

15 · L. Montani

16 · D. Rojas

17 · Z. Gomez

18 · E. Ramirez

19 · M. Lopez

20 · D. Salvo

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Flandria

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Ramos

4 M. Correa

2 A. Nalerio

6 M. Lopez

3 D. Spitale

5 B. Gonzalez

8 A. Dulon

10 F. Costa

11 M. Lopez

9 M. Donato

7 G. Calabria

Coach · Arnaldo Sialle

Substitutes

12 · L. Szalich

13 · F. Ruiz

14 · S. Negri

15 · F. Real

16 · M. Vasconcelo

17 · A. Casal

18 · M. Jaureguiberrey

19 · B. Gimenez

20 · T. Echague

Defensores Unidos

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Henricot

4 M. N. Alarcon

2 J. Lopez

6 F. Suarez

3 M. Rapetti

8 J. Tello

5 A. Baigorria

10 M. Gimenez

11 A. Sombra

7 T. Girard

9 B. Carboni

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · F. Salerno

13 · S. Iribarne

14 · T. Ferreyra

15 · L. Montani

16 · D. Rojas

17 · Z. Gomez

18 · E. Ramirez

19 · M. Lopez

20 · D. Salvo

Our number · flandria winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

37% The market45%

Us37%

~~Market~~45%

We make Flandria a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · flandria win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 44% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Flandria win	37%	45%	−8
Draw	36%	32%	+4
Defensores Unidos win	27%	24%	+4
Over 2.5 goals	28%	34%	−6
Both teams to score	37%	41%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	56%	58%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	12%	17%	−5
Flandria or draw	73%	76%	−4
Flandria clean sheet	44%	–	–
Defensores Unidos clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.8%

0123450 17.8 11.5 5.5 1 14.3 14.8 5.5 2 8.1 6.6 2.8 3 2.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Flandria down, Defensores Unidos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,195 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 420 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 1.67 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Flandria at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Defensores Unidos away: 0.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Flandria, 0.83 for Defensores Unidos. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.67

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~0 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DEF 1–0 FLA · FLA 1–0 DEF · DEF 0–3 FLA

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana

FLANDRIA

WLWLLD2–0 · 1–3 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 1–1

DEFENSORES UNIDOS

DDWLWD0–0 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	38	+25	69
3	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	+17	65
5	Villa Dalmine	38	+15	64
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Real Pilar	38	+4	61
8	Deportivo Armenio	38	+4	60
9	Comunicaciones	38	+5	55
10	Deportivo Laferrere	38	−4	51
11	San Martín Burzaco	38	−2	50
12	Dock Sud	38	−2	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Argentino de Merlo	38	−6	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	38	−15	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	38	−7	43
17	Liniers	38	−8	43
18	Defensores Unidos	38	−6	41
19	Brown DE Adrogue	38	−13	39
20	Flandria	38	−14	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	−14	35
22	Ituzaingó	38	−37	15