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Excursionistas v Villa San Carlos

Excursionistas

4–0Full time

Villa San Carlos

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 10 OCT · Excursionistas Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 02:30

Excursionistas 4–0 Villa San Carlos EXCURSIONISTAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Excursionistas win~~53%

~~The market said~~57%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.339

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.278

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Excursionistas win at 53%.
1′Much as we predicted: Excursionistas was 53% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 54–25–20
1′KICK-OFF Excursionistas v Villa San Carlos
11′⚽ GOAL · 10' Excursionistas 1–0 Villa San Carlos
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Excursionistas 2–0 Villa San Carlos
22′Excursionistas find the net on 21′. 2–0. 2–0 · 95–4–1
22′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 22' Excursionistas win: 53% at kick-off, 95% now
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Villa San Carlos
39′SUBSTITUTION · 35' Villa San Carlos · On: L. Machin · Off: I. Esteves
40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Villa San Carlos
45′⚽ GOAL · 48' Excursionistas 3–0 Villa San Carlos
45′HALF-TIME Excursionistas 3–0 Villa San Carlos
46′SECOND HALF Excursionistas 3–0 Villa San Carlos
49′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Villa San Carlos · On: M. Plastino · Off: F. Mussis
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Excursionistas 4–0 Villa San Carlos
66′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Villa San Carlos · On: A. Acosta · Off: L. Machin Corrected
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Excursionistas · On: M. Lopez · Off: M. Fernandez
66′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Excursionistas · On: W. Gimenez · Off: N. Damiolini
75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Excursionistas
79′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Excursionistas
85′🟨 YELLOW · 75' D. Ledesma · Excursionistas
FTFULL TIME Excursionistas 4–0 Villa San Carlos
FTExcursionistas 4–0 Villa San Carlos · Excursionistas win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Excursionistas win53%

Draw28%

Villa San Carlos win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 00:00

Venue · Excursionistas Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Excursionistas

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Rodriguez

4 M. Fernandez

2 D. Ledesma

6 G. Pedrosa

3 M. Arango

5 G. Zoratti

8 A. Avalos

7 N. Damiolini

10 A. Espeche

11 M. Blanco

9 G. Tellas

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Blengio

13 · G. Rodriguez

14 · A. Paulides

15 · L. Chambi

16 · M. Lopez

17 · M. Cardozo

18 · M. Alaniz

19 · W. Gimenez

20 · M. Polvera

Villa San Carlos

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Akimenco

4 A. Lloyaiy

2 G. Areco

6 I. Esteves

8 F. Farias

10 A. Ponton

5 E. Gonzalez

3 S. Canete

11 F. Mussis

9 R. Salinas

7 A. Lugones

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · P. Bangardino

13 · L. Machin

14 · S. Fabi

15 · A. Acosta

16 · F. Cairo

17 · J. Villagra

20 · B. Alvarez

19 · M. Plastino

18 · R. Alvarez

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Excursionistas

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Rodriguez

4 M. Fernandez

2 D. Ledesma

6 G. Pedrosa

3 M. Arango

5 G. Zoratti

8 A. Avalos

7 N. Damiolini

10 A. Espeche

11 M. Blanco

9 G. Tellas

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Blengio

13 · G. Rodriguez

14 · A. Paulides

15 · L. Chambi

16 · M. Lopez

17 · M. Cardozo

18 · M. Alaniz

19 · W. Gimenez

20 · M. Polvera

Villa San Carlos

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Akimenco

4 A. Lloyaiy

2 G. Areco

6 I. Esteves

8 F. Farias

10 A. Ponton

5 E. Gonzalez

3 S. Canete

11 F. Mussis

9 R. Salinas

7 A. Lugones

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · P. Bangardino

13 · L. Machin

14 · S. Fabi

15 · A. Acosta

16 · F. Cairo

17 · J. Villagra

20 · B. Alvarez

19 · M. Plastino

18 · R. Alvarez

Our number · excursionistas winPublished 10 Oct 00:00

53% The market57%

Us53%

~~Market~~57%

We make Excursionistas a 53% chance to win. The market has them at 57%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · excursionistas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 65% to 57% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Excursionistas win	53%	57%	−4
Draw	28%	25%	+3
Villa San Carlos win	19%	18%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	45%	46%	−1
Both teams to score	47%	46%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	69%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	24%	25%	−2
Excursionistas or draw	81%	82%	−1
Excursionistas clean sheet	42%	–	–
Villa San Carlos clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 10.2 6.0 3.3 1 12.1 13.2 5.1 2 10.7 9.2 4.0 3 5.7 4.9 2.1 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Excursionistas down, Villa San Carlos across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,193 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.8% of games this season, across 418 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Excursionistas at home: 2.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Villa San Carlos away: 1.17 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Excursionistas, 0.87 for Villa San Carlos. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~2 of 5

~~Last meetings~~VIL 0–2 EXC · EXC 0–0 VIL · VIL 2–1 EXC · VIL 2–2 EXC

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana

EXCURSIONISTAS

LWWWWL0–3 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–1

VILLA SAN CARLOS

LDDDWW0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	38	+29	74
2	Arsenal Sarandi	38	+25	69
3	Talleres Remedios	38	+17	67
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	+17	65
5	Villa Dalmine	38	+15	64
6	Deportivo Camioneros	38	+14	63
7	Real Pilar	38	+4	61
8	Deportivo Armenio	38	+4	60
9	Comunicaciones	38	+5	55
10	Deportivo Laferrere	38	−4	51
11	San Martín Burzaco	38	−2	50
12	Dock Sud	38	−2	47
13	Villa San Carlos	38	−2	47
14	Argentino de Merlo	38	−6	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	38	−15	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	38	−7	43
17	Liniers	38	−8	43
18	Defensores Unidos	38	−6	41
19	Brown DE Adrogue	38	−13	39
20	Flandria	38	−14	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	−14	35
22	Ituzaingó	38	−37	15