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Excursionistas v Sportivo Italiano

Excursionistas

4–0Full time

Sportivo Italiano

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 24 OCT · Excursionistas Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41

Excursionistas 4–0 Sportivo Italiano EXCURSIONISTAS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Excursionistas win~~44%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.480

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.150

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Excursionistas win at 44%.
1′Much as we predicted: Excursionistas was 44% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–32–25
1′KICK-OFF Excursionistas v Sportivo Italiano
3′Excursionistas find the net on 2′. 1–0. 1–0 · 75–16–9
3′We published Excursionistas at 44%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–16–9
3′⚽ GOAL · 2' Excursionistas 1–0 Sportivo Italiano
3′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 3' Excursionistas win: 44% at kick-off, 75% now
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Sportivo Italiano
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Sportivo Italiano
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 1–0 · 76–17–7
30′🟨 YELLOW · 30' Sportivo Italiano
32′A goal for Excursionistas on 31′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 94–5–1
32′⚽ GOAL · 31' Excursionistas 2–0 Sportivo Italiano
32′PENALTY MISSED · 32' Excursionistas
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 32' Excursionistas win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
33′We published Excursionistas at 44%. Our model now makes it 94%. 2–0 · 94–5–1
38′We published Excursionistas at 44%. Our model now makes it 99%. 3–0 · 99–1–0
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Excursionistas 3–0 Sportivo Italiano
40′Excursionistas score on 39′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 99–1–0
41′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.3 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 99–1–0
45′HALF-TIME Excursionistas 3–0 Sportivo Italiano
45′SECOND HALF Excursionistas 3–0 Sportivo Italiano
52′We published Excursionistas at 44%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′Excursionistas find the net on 77′. 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 77' Excursionistas 4–0 Sportivo Italiano
79′4 goals already, more than the 2.3 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
90′Full time, 4–0. We called Excursionistas at 44% — that one lands. 4–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Excursionistas 4–0 Sportivo Italiano
FTExcursionistas 4–0 Sportivo Italiano · Excursionistas win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Excursionistas are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Excursionistas 44%, draw 31%, Sportivo Italiano 25%. Over 2.5 goals 39%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Excursionistas v Sportivo ItalianoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Excursionistas win44%

Draw31%

Sportivo Italiano win25%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 41

VenueExcursionistas Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Excursionistas

Sportivo Italiano

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · excursionistas winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market69%

Us44%

~~Market~~69%

We make Excursionistas a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 25 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Excursionistas v Sportivo Italiano~~1.32 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 78 v 69~~1 v 3

~~The market · Excursionistas win~~69% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Excursionistas win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Excursionistas win	44%	69%	−25
Draw	31%	21%	+10
Sportivo Italiano win	25%	10%	+15
Over 2.5 goals	39%	47%	−8
Both teams to score	46%	37%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	19%	27%	−8
Excursionistas or draw	75%	90%	−15
Excursionistas clean sheet	39%	–	–
Sportivo Italiano clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 12.4 8.1 4.6 1 12.0 14.5 6.0 2 9.0 8.4 4.0 3 4.0 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Excursionistas down, Sportivo Italiano across0–5 goals a side shown (99.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,215 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games this season, across 440 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Excursionistas at home: 3.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sportivo Italiano away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Excursionistas, 0.94 for Sportivo Italiano. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SPO 0–1 EXC · SPO 2–1 EXC · EXC 2–0 SPO · EXC 1–1 SPO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept

EXCURSIONISTAS

WWWLWD3–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 4–0 · 1–1

SPORTIVO ITALIANO

LDWWWD0–1 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	40	+33	78
2	Arsenal Sarandi	40	+27	73
3	Sportivo Italiano	40	+18	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	+16	68
5	Deportivo Camioneros	40	+15	67
6	Villa Dalmine	40	+12	65
7	Deportivo Armenio	40	+4	62
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
9	Comunicaciones	40	+5	57
10	Deportivo Laferrere	40	−3	55
11	San Martín Burzaco	40	−4	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
13	Deportivo Merlo	40	−14	48
14	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
15	Liniers	40	−8	45
16	Flandria	40	−12	45
17	Argentino de Merlo	40	−8	44
18	Argentino Quilmes	40	−8	44
19	Brown DE Adrogue	40	−12	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	−7	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	40	−37	17