Dock Sud v Deportivo Laferrere prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10

Dock Sud 1–2 Deportivo Laferrere DOCK SUD WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dock Sud win~~40%

~~The market said~~31%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.755

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.583

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dock Sud win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Dock Sud was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–30–29
1′KICK-OFF Dock Sud v Deportivo Laferrere
4′Much as we predicted: Dock Sud was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–31–29
19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Dock Sud
20′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Deportivo Laferrere
39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Dock Sud win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Dock Sud 0–0 Deportivo Laferrere
46′SUBSTITUTION · 40' Deportivo Laferrere · On: B. Portillo · Off: E. Trejo
46′SECOND HALF Dock Sud 0–0 Deportivo Laferrere
50′Dock Sud score on 50′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 76–19–5
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Dock Sud 1–0 Deportivo Laferrere
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Dock Sud win: 40% at kick-off, 76% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Dock Sud win is now our likeliest result at 76% (was Draw 19%)
51′We published Dock Sud at 40%. Our model now makes it 76%. 1–0 · 76–19–5
51′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 1–0 · 76–19–5
56′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dock Sud · On: F. Nicolaievsky · Off: T. Chamorro
62′We published Dock Sud at 40%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Dock Sud win: 40% at kick-off, 80% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Dock Sud · On: F. Meza · Off: N. Guerrero
67′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Deportivo Laferrere · On: J. Denis · Off: L. Mamani
67′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Dock Sud · On: F. Herrera · Off: S. Vivas
72′Deportivo Laferrere find the net on 72′. 1–1. 1–1 · 19–65–16
72′We said Dock Sud at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 19–65–16
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Dock Sud 1–1 Deportivo Laferrere
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Dock Sud win: 40% at kick-off, 19% now
72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 65% (was Dock Sud win 19%)
78′We said Dock Sud at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–74–12
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Dock Sud win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
83′We said Dock Sud at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–83–7
83′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Deportivo Laferrere · On: M. Cantero · Off: A. Benitez
83′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Deportivo Laferrere · On: L. Rebecchi · Off: A. Visco
83′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Deportivo Laferrere · On: F. Romero · Off: D. Vega
83′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dock Sud · On: B. Arriola · Off: T. Villordo
84′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dock Sud · On: J. Obregon · Off: G. Gomez
90′We said Dock Sud at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–92–3
92′A goal for Deportivo Laferrere on 90′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 0–3–97
92′⚽ GOAL · 90+2' Dock Sud 1–2 Deportivo Laferrere
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Dock Sud win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
92′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+2' Deportivo Laferrere win is now our likeliest result at 97% (was Draw 3%)
93′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 1–2 · 0–2–98
FTFULL TIME Dock Sud 1–2 Deportivo Laferrere
FTDock Sud 1–2 Deportivo Laferrere · Dock Sud win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dock Sud are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dock Sud 40%, draw 30%, Deportivo Laferrere 29%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Dock Sud v Deportivo LaferrereBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dock Sud win40%

Draw30%

Deportivo Laferrere win29%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 40

VenueEstadio de los Inmigrantes

Line-ups

Dock Sud

Deportivo Laferrere

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dock Sud

Deportivo Laferrere

5Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	−4	52
12	Dock Sud	39	−3	47

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dock Sud

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Tello

2 A. Avalos

3 A. Barreiro

4 N. Guerrero

5 T. Chamorro

6 N. Lopez

7 V. Venetucci

8 F. Otero

9 S. Vivas

10 G. Gomez

11 T. Villordo

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · G. Martinez

13 · F. Meza

14 · F. Herrera

15 · J. Obregon

16 · A. Dameno

17 · F. Nicolaievsky

18 · O. Eichhorn

19 · B. Arriola

20 · A. Arias

Deportivo Laferrere

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Libares

2 I. Cavoret

3 N. Manzi

4 N. Vivas

5 E. Trejo

6 L. Mamani

7 D. Vega

8 A. Benitez

9 J. Moran

10 F. Ortiz

11 A. Visco

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Morro

13 · B. Portillo

14 · M. Digangi

15 · M. Cantero

16 · D. Bramajo

17 · R. Digion

18 · J. Denis

19 · F. Romero

20 · L. Rebecchi

Our number · dock sud winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:19 · locked at kick-off

40% The market31%

Us40%

~~Market~~31%

We make Dock Sud a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 31%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dock Sud v Deportivo Laferrere~~1.35 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 47 v 52~~12 v 10

~~The market · Dock Sud win~~31% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dock Sud win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 31% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dock Sud win	40%	31%	+9
Draw	30%	31%	−1
Deportivo Laferrere win	29%	38%	−9
Over 2.5 goals	45%	35%	+10
Both teams to score	51%	43%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	72%	59%	+13
Over 3.5 goals	24%	18%	+6
Dock Sud or draw	71%	62%	+9
Dock Sud clean sheet	33%	–	–
Deportivo Laferrere clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.3%

0123450 10.4 7.9 5.3 1 9.9 14.3 7.0 2.6 2 7.7 8.5 4.7 3 3.5 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dock Sud down, Deportivo Laferrere across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,204 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 429 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.14 goals a meeting; 4 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dock Sud at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Laferrere away: 2.17 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for Dock Sud, 1.11 for Deportivo Laferrere. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.14

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–1 DOC · DOC 0–1 DEP · DEP 2–3 DOC · DEP 2–3 DOC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 6 Sept

DOCK SUD

LLDWLL0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3 · 0–1

DEPORTIVO LAFERRERE

DDLLWD2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	+18	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
8	Real Pilar	39	+3	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	−4	52
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	−4	50
12	Dock Sud	39	−3	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45
15	Argentino de Merlo	39	−7	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
17	Liniers	39	−8	44
18	Brown DE Adrogue	39	−12	42
19	Flandria	39	−13	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41
21	UAI Urquiza	39	−13	38
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16