Deportivo Merlo v Talleres Remedios prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 01:51

Deportivo Merlo 2–1 Talleres Remedios TALLERES REMEDIOS WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Talleres Remedios win~~40%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.859

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.864

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Talleres Remedios win at 40%.
1′Much as we predicted: Talleres Remedios was 40% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 24–36–40
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Merlo v Talleres Remedios
14′Deportivo Merlo find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–24–14
14′⚽ GOAL · 12' Deportivo Merlo 1–0 Talleres Remedios
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 14' Talleres Remedios win: 40% at kick-off, 14% now
14′THE CALL SWINGS · 14' Deportivo Merlo win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Talleres Remedios win 14%)
15′Deportivo Merlo find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 62–24–14
15′We said Talleres Remedios at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
29′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Talleres Remedios
29′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Deportivo Merlo
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Deportivo Merlo
30′Goals are coming at about the 1.8 we expected. 1–0 · 66–24–10
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Talleres Remedios win: 40% at kick-off, 10% now
35′We said Talleres Remedios at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–24–9
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Deportivo Merlo
43′A goal for Deportivo Merlo on 43′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 92–6–1
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Deportivo Merlo 2–0 Talleres Remedios
44′🟨 YELLOW · 32' F. Aguerre · Deportivo Merlo
45′We said Talleres Remedios at 40%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 2–0 · 93–6–1
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Merlo 2–0 Talleres Remedios
46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Merlo 2–0 Talleres Remedios
60′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Talleres Remedios · On: I. Ciavarelli · Off: M. Rodriguez
60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Talleres Remedios win: 40% at kick-off, under 1% now
70′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Talleres Remedios · On: L. Zannier · Off: A. Arce
70′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Deportivo Merlo
76′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Deportivo Merlo · On: R. Hernandez · Off: C. Gugenheim
84′Talleres Remedios score on 84′ to make it 2–1. 2–1 · 94–6–0
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Deportivo Merlo 2–1 Talleres Remedios
85′That is 3, and we only asked for 1.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 94–6–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Deportivo Merlo · On: C. Sineiro · Off: F. Benitez
90′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Deportivo Merlo · On: F. Valdez · Off: E. Quinteros
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportivo Merlo · On: A. Diaz · Off: I. Sandoval
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Merlo 2–1 Talleres Remedios
FTDeportivo Merlo 2–1 Talleres Remedios · Talleres Remedios win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Talleres Remedios just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Merlo 24%, draw 36%, Talleres Remedios 40%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Merlo v Talleres RemediosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Merlo win24%

Draw36%

Talleres Remedios win40%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 23:00

RoundMatchday 40

VenueJose Manuel Moreno Stadium

Line-ups

Deportivo Merlo

Talleres Remedios

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Merlo

Talleres Remedios

7Days since last match8

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
15	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Merlo

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Figueroa

4 L. Vallejo

2 L. Figueredo

6 A. Minnicelli

3 L. Alfieri

5 F. Benitez

8 F. Aguerre

10 E. Quinteros

7 C. Gugenheim

11 D. Maguicha

9 I. Sandoval

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · I. Turnes

13 · C. Sineiro

14 · F. Valdez

15 · L. Miguez

16 · N. Casasola

17 · R. Hernandez

18 · A. Diaz

19 · A. M. Paez

20 · M. Linas

Talleres Remedios

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Casoli

4 M. Rodriguez

2 M. Del Pino

6 N. Malvacio

3 M. Bazzi

8 A. Arce

5 P. Cortizo

10 F. Enrique

11 C. Mosca

7 M. Samaniego

9 F. Martinez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · L. Bursich

13 · A. Masuero

14 · L. Johnson

15 · S. Gallardo

16 · M. Cantero

17 · I. Ciavarelli

18 · S. Alvarez

19 · I. Colombini

20 · L. Barrios

Our number · talleres remedios winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

40% The market45%

Us40%

~~Market~~45%

We make Talleres Remedios a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Merlo v Talleres Remedios~~0.76 – 1.04

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D3 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 45 v 68~~15 v 4

~~The market · Talleres Remedios win~~45% · ours 40%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Talleres Remedios win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Merlo win	24%	25%	−1
Draw	36%	30%	+6
Talleres Remedios win	40%	45%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	27%	35%	−8
Both teams to score	36%	42%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	55%	60%	−5
Over 3.5 goals	11%	18%	−7
Deportivo Merlo or draw	60%	55%	+5
Deportivo Merlo clean sheet	35%	–	–
Talleres Remedios clean sheet	47%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.4%

0123450 18.4 15.5 9.0 3.2 1 10.8 14.5 6.7 2.4 2 4.8 4.9 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Merlo down, Talleres Remedios across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,204 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 429 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 1.43 goals a meeting; 1 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Merlo at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Talleres Remedios away: 0.83 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.76 goals for Deportivo Merlo, 1.04 for Talleres Remedios. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~1.43

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 7

~~Both scored~~2 of 7

~~Last meetings~~TAL 2–0 DEP · DEP 0–0 TAL · TAL 0–1 DEP · TAL 1–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept

DEPORTIVO MERLO

DLWLDD0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1

TALLERES REMEDIOS

WLDWLD2–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–2 · 0–2 · 1–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	+18	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
8	Real Pilar	39	+3	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	40	−3	55
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	−4	50
12	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Liniers	40	−8	45
15	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45
16	Argentino de Merlo	39	−7	44
17	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
18	Brown DE Adrogue	39	−12	42
19	Flandria	39	−13	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16