Deportivo Merlo v Arsenal Sarandi prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Deportivo MerloDrawArsenal Sarandi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 20:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Arsenal Sarandi 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arsenal Sarandi are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Merlo 24%, draw 33%, Arsenal Sarandi 42%. Over 2.5 goals 34%, both teams to score 41%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Merlo v Arsenal SarandiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Merlo win24%

Draw33%

Arsenal Sarandi win42%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 20:00

RoundMatchday 42

VenueJose Manuel Moreno Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Merlo

Arsenal Sarandi

7Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Arsenal Sarandi	41	+28	76
14	Deportivo Merlo	41	−15	48

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arsenal sarandi winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Arsenal Sarandi a 42% chance to win. The model expects 0.8–1.2, and 0–0 is the single most likely score at 15%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Merlo v Arsenal Sarandi~~0.85 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 19 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 48 v 76~~14 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Merlo win	24%	–	–
Draw	33%	–	–
Arsenal Sarandi win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	34%	–	–
Both teams to score	41%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	62%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	15%	–	–
Deportivo Merlo or draw	58%	–	–
Deportivo Merlo clean sheet	30%	–	–
Arsenal Sarandi clean sheet	43%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 14.8%

0123450 14.8 13.9 9.3 3.7 1 9.3 14.6 7.7 3.1 2 4.7 5.5 3.3 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Merlo down, Arsenal Sarandi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,223 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.4% of games this season, across 448 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 6.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Merlo at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Arsenal Sarandi away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.85 goals for Deportivo Merlo, 1.20 for Arsenal Sarandi. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~6.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ARS 4–2 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 19 Sept

DEPORTIVO MERLO

WLDDWL2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 0–1

ARSENAL SARANDI

LWLWDW1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1 · 3–1 · 0–0 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	41	+37	81
2	Arsenal Sarandi	41	+28	76
3	Sportivo Italiano	41	+14	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	+16	68
5	Villa Dalmine	41	+13	68
6	Deportivo Camioneros	41	+14	67
7	Deportivo Armenio	41	+3	62
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
9	Deportivo Laferrere	41	−2	58
10	Comunicaciones	41	+4	57
11	San Martín Burzaco	41	−5	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
13	Flandria	41	−10	48
14	Deportivo Merlo	41	−15	48
15	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
16	Argentino de Merlo	41	−7	47
17	Argentino Quilmes	41	−7	47
18	Liniers	40	−8	45
19	Brown DE Adrogue	40	−12	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	−7	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	41	−39	17