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Deportivo Laferrere v Deportivo Merlo

Deportivo Laferrere

1–1Full time

Deportivo Merlo

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 10 OCT · Ciudad de Laferrere Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Deportivo Laferrere 1–1 Deportivo Merlo DEPORTIVO LAFERRERE WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Deportivo Laferrere win~~46%

~~The market said~~55%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.760

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.871

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Laferrere win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Laferrere 46% before kick-off, 48% now. 0–0 · 48–27–25
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Laferrere v Deportivo Merlo
8′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Laferrere 46% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 47–28–25
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Laferrere 0–0 Deportivo Merlo
46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Laferrere 0–0 Deportivo Merlo
60′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Deportivo Laferrere · On: F. Romero · Off: D. Vega
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Deportivo Laferrere · On: J. Denis · Off: L. Mamani
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Deportivo Laferrere · On: D. Bramajo · Off: A. Benitez
70′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Deportivo Laferrere
73′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Deportivo Merlo · On: R. Hernandez · Off: C. Gugenheim
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Deportivo Laferrere 0–1 Deportivo Merlo
80′PENALTY MISSED · 80' Deportivo Laferrere
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportivo Laferrere · On: L. Rebecchi · Off: N. Manzi
90′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Deportivo Merlo · On: C. Sineiro · Off: F. Benitez
90′⚽ GOAL · 95' Deportivo Laferrere 1–1 Deportivo Merlo
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Laferrere 1–1 Deportivo Merlo
FTDeportivo Laferrere 1–1 Deportivo Merlo · Deportivo Laferrere win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Deportivo Laferrere win46%

Draw30%

Deportivo Merlo win24%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Ciudad de Laferrere Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Deportivo Laferrere

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Libares

2 I. Cavoret

3 L. Mamani

4 B. Portillo

5 E. Trejo

6 N. Manzi

7 D. Vega

8 N. Vivas

9 J. Moran

10 F. Ortiz

11 A. Benitez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Morro

13 · L. Nebot

14 · M. Cantero

15 · M. Digangi

16 · J. Denis

17 · D. Bramajo

18 · A. Visco

19 · F. Romero

20 · L. Rebecchi

Deportivo Merlo

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Figueroa

4 L. Vallejo

2 L. Figueredo

6 A. Minnicelli

3 L. Alfieri

5 F. Benitez

8 F. Aguerre

10 E. Quinteros

7 C. Gugenheim

11 D. Maguicha

9 I. Sandoval

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · I. Turnes

13 · C. Sineiro

14 · F. Valdez

15 · L. Miguez

16 · N. Casasola

17 · A. Diaz

18 · A. M. Paez

19 · R. Hernandez

20 · M. Linas

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Laferrere

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Libares

2 I. Cavoret

3 L. Mamani

4 B. Portillo

5 E. Trejo

6 N. Manzi

7 D. Vega

8 N. Vivas

9 J. Moran

10 F. Ortiz

11 A. Benitez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Morro

13 · L. Nebot

14 · M. Cantero

15 · M. Digangi

16 · J. Denis

17 · D. Bramajo

18 · A. Visco

19 · F. Romero

20 · L. Rebecchi

Deportivo Merlo

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Figueroa

4 L. Vallejo

2 L. Figueredo

6 A. Minnicelli

3 L. Alfieri

5 F. Benitez

8 F. Aguerre

10 E. Quinteros

7 C. Gugenheim

11 D. Maguicha

9 I. Sandoval

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · I. Turnes

13 · C. Sineiro

14 · F. Valdez

15 · L. Miguez

16 · N. Casasola

17 · A. Diaz

18 · A. M. Paez

19 · R. Hernandez

20 · M. Linas

Our number · deportivo laferrere winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

46% The market55%

Us46%

~~Market~~55%

We make Deportivo Laferrere a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · deportivo laferrere win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 55% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Laferrere win	46%	55%	−9
Draw	30%	27%	+3
Deportivo Merlo win	24%	18%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	42%	39%	+3
Both teams to score	48%	41%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	70%	64%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	22%	21%	+1
Deportivo Laferrere or draw	76%	82%	−6
Deportivo Laferrere clean sheet	39%	–	–
Deportivo Merlo clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 11.1 7.3 4.2 1 11.6 14.0 5.9 2 9.4 8.8 4.2 3 4.5 4.2 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Laferrere down, Deportivo Merlo across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,195 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 420 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Laferrere at home: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Merlo away: 0.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for Deportivo Laferrere, 0.95 for Deportivo Merlo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~DEP 2–1 DEP · DEP 2–2 DEP · DEP 1–1 DEP · DEP 0–0 DEP

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana

DEPORTIVO LAFERRERE

DDDLLW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1

DEPORTIVO MERLO

LDLWLD0–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	38	+25	69
3	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	+17	65
5	Villa Dalmine	38	+15	64
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Real Pilar	38	+4	61
8	Deportivo Armenio	38	+4	60
9	Comunicaciones	38	+5	55
10	Deportivo Laferrere	38	−4	51
11	San Martín Burzaco	38	−2	50
12	Dock Sud	38	−2	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Argentino de Merlo	38	−6	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	38	−15	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	38	−7	43
17	Liniers	38	−8	43
18	Defensores Unidos	38	−6	41
19	Brown DE Adrogue	38	−13	39
20	Flandria	38	−14	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	−14	35
22	Ituzaingó	38	−37	15