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Deportivo Laferrere v Comunicaciones

Deportivo Laferrere

1–0Full time

Comunicaciones

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 24 OCT · Ciudad de Laferrere Stadium

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41

Deportivo Laferrere 1–0 Comunicaciones DEPORTIVO LAFERRERE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Laferrere win~~37%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.596

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.513

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Laferrere win at 37%.
1′Much as we predicted: Deportivo Laferrere was 37% before kick-off and our model makes it 37% now. 0–0 · 37–33–31
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Laferrere v Comunicaciones
27′Deportivo Laferrere score on 27′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 71–20–9
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Deportivo Laferrere 1–0 Comunicaciones
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Deportivo Laferrere win: 37% at kick-off, 71% now
28′We published Deportivo Laferrere at 37%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–20–9
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.2 we expected. 1–0 · 72–20–8
35′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Deportivo Laferrere
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Comunicaciones
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Deportivo Laferrere
36′🟨 YELLOW · 36' Deportivo Laferrere
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Laferrere 1–0 Comunicaciones
45′SECOND HALF Deportivo Laferrere 1–0 Comunicaciones
46′We published Deportivo Laferrere at 37%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Deportivo Laferrere
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Deportivo Laferrere win: 37% at kick-off, 77% now
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Comunicaciones
61′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Comunicaciones
62′We published Deportivo Laferrere at 37%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
65′🟨 YELLOW · 64' Comunicaciones
72′We published Deportivo Laferrere at 37%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
75′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Deportivo Laferrere · On: M. Cantero · Off: G. Atardo
75′🟨 YELLOW · 67' R. Compagnucci · Comunicaciones
75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Deportivo Laferrere win: 37% at kick-off, 87% now
76′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Comunicaciones · On: I. Carruega · Off: F. Fabello
76′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Comunicaciones · On: E. Ramirez · Off: V. Quevedo
79′We published Deportivo Laferrere at 37%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Deportivo Laferrere · On: M. Digangi · Off: A. Benitez
80′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Deportivo Laferrere · On: J. Denis · Off: L. Mamani
80′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Deportivo Laferrere · On: F. Romero · Off: D. Vega
87′We published Deportivo Laferrere at 37%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Deportivo Laferrere win: 37% at kick-off, 97% now
93′🟥 RED CARD · 90+3' Comunicaciones
94′A red card for Comunicaciones on 90′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 99–1–0
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Laferrere 1–0 Comunicaciones
FTDeportivo Laferrere 1–0 Comunicaciones · Deportivo Laferrere win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Laferrere are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Laferrere 37%, draw 32%, Comunicaciones 31%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Laferrere v ComunicacionesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Laferrere win37%

Draw32%

Comunicaciones win31%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 41

VenueCiudad de Laferrere Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Laferrere

Comunicaciones

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Comunicaciones	40	+5	57
10	Deportivo Laferrere	40	−3	55

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo laferrere winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

37% The market42%

Us37%

~~Market~~42%

We make Deportivo Laferrere a 37% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.2–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Laferrere v Comunicaciones~~1.18 – 1.05

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 11 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W1 D5 L0

~~Table places · points 55 v 57~~10 v 9

~~The market · Deportivo Laferrere win~~42% · ours 37%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Laferrere win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Laferrere win	37%	42%	−5
Draw	32%	32%	0
Comunicaciones win	31%	26%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	38%	35%	+3
Both teams to score	46%	42%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	61%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	19%	18%	+1
Deportivo Laferrere or draw	69%	74%	−5
Deportivo Laferrere clean sheet	35%	–	–
Comunicaciones clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.9%

0123450 12.8 9.6 5.9 2.1 1 10.9 14.9 6.9 2.4 2 7.5 7.7 4.1 3 3.0 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Laferrere down, Comunicaciones across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,215 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games this season, across 440 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 3 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Laferrere at home: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Comunicaciones away: 0.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Deportivo Laferrere, 1.05 for Comunicaciones. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 5

~~Both scored~~4 of 5

~~Last meetings~~COM 3–3 DEP · DEP 1–0 COM · COM 2–2 DEP · DEP 1–1 COM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 11 Sept

DEPORTIVO LAFERRERE

DLLWDW1–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 2–1

COMUNICACIONES

DWDDDD2–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	40	+33	78
2	Arsenal Sarandi	40	+27	73
3	Sportivo Italiano	40	+18	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	+16	68
5	Deportivo Camioneros	40	+15	67
6	Villa Dalmine	40	+12	65
7	Deportivo Armenio	40	+4	62
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
9	Comunicaciones	40	+5	57
10	Deportivo Laferrere	40	−3	55
11	San Martín Burzaco	40	−4	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
13	Deportivo Merlo	40	−14	48
14	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
15	Liniers	40	−8	45
16	Flandria	40	−12	45
17	Argentino de Merlo	40	−8	44
18	Argentino Quilmes	40	−8	44
19	Brown DE Adrogue	40	−12	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	−7	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	40	−37	17