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Deportivo Camioneros v Argentino de Merlo

Deportivo Camioneros

3–2Full time

Argentino de Merlo

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 17 OCT · Hugo Moyano

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 19:40

Deportivo Camioneros 3–2 Argentino de Merlo DEPORTIVO CAMIONEROS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Camioneros win~~44%

~~The market said~~50%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.473

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.384

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Camioneros win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Camioneros 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–33–23
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Camioneros v Argentino de Merlo
10′A goal for Argentino de Merlo on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 19–24–57
10′We said Deportivo Camioneros at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Deportivo Camioneros 0–1 Argentino de Merlo
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 10' Deportivo Camioneros win: 44% at kick-off, 19% now
10′THE CALL SWINGS · 10' Argentino de Merlo win is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Deportivo Camioneros win 19%)
27′We said Deportivo Camioneros at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–1 · 14–25–61
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 27' Deportivo Camioneros win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
30′Deportivo Camioneros score on 30′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 38–39–22
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Deportivo Camioneros 1–1 Argentino de Merlo
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 30' Deportivo Camioneros win: 44% at kick-off, 38% now
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Argentino de Merlo
34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Deportivo Camioneros
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Argentino de Merlo win 22%)
43′🟨 YELLOW · 42' Argentino de Merlo
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Deportivo Camioneros win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Camioneros 1–1 Argentino de Merlo
46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Camioneros 1–1 Argentino de Merlo
50′We said Deportivo Camioneros at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 1–1 · 32–49–19
50′🟨 YELLOW · 33' D. E. Aguirre · Argentino de Merlo
50′SUBSTITUTION · 41' Argentino de Merlo · On: C. Medina · Off: J. Cacace
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Deportivo Camioneros
56′We said Deportivo Camioneros at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–53–18
62′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Argentino de Merlo · On: J. Rodriguez · Off: C. Marcial
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Deportivo Camioneros
65′We said Deportivo Camioneros at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–61–15
65′Deportivo Camioneros find the net on 65′. 2–1. 2–1 · 85–13–2
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Deportivo Camioneros win: 44% at kick-off, 24% now
65′⚽ GOAL · 65' Deportivo Camioneros 2–1 Argentino de Merlo
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Deportivo Camioneros win: 44% at kick-off, 85% now
65′THE CALL SWINGS · 65' Deportivo Camioneros win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 13%)
66′We said Deportivo Camioneros at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 2–1 · 85–13–2
66′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 2–1 · 85–13–2
68′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Deportivo Camioneros · On: L. Perez Godoy · Off: F. Moyano
70′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Deportivo Camioneros · On: N. Moyano · Off: M. De Jesus
75′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Argentino de Merlo · On: F. Lopez · Off: B. Maceri
75′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Argentino de Merlo · On: F. Maldonado · Off: M. Gomez
76′We said Deportivo Camioneros at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 2–1 · 90–10–1
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Argentino de Merlo
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' Deportivo Camioneros win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
84′We said Deportivo Camioneros at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 2–1 · 95–5–0
85′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportivo Camioneros · On: G. Lopez · Off: P. Lopez
86′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Deportivo Camioneros · On: I. Huguenet · Off: F. Aguirre
93′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Deportivo Camioneros · On: R. Acosta · Off: L. U. Brizuela
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+3' Deportivo Camioneros
95′A goal for Argentino de Merlo on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 1–98–1
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Deportivo Camioneros 2–2 Argentino de Merlo
95′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+5' Deportivo Camioneros win: 44% at kick-off, 1% now
95′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+5' Draw is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Deportivo Camioneros win 1%)
96′We said Deportivo Camioneros at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 2–2 · 1–98–1
96′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 1–98–1
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Argentino de Merlo
97′Deportivo Camioneros score on 90′ to make it 3–2. 3–2 · 99–1–0
97′5 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 3–2 · 99–1–0
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+7' Deportivo Camioneros 3–2 Argentino de Merlo
97′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+7' Deportivo Camioneros win: 44% at kick-off, 99% now
97′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+7' Deportivo Camioneros win is now our likeliest result at 99% (was Draw 1%)
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Camioneros 3–2 Argentino de Merlo
FTDeportivo Camioneros 3–2 Argentino de Merlo · Deportivo Camioneros win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Camioneros are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Camioneros 44%, draw 32%, Argentino de Merlo 23%. Over 2.5 goals 35%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Camioneros v Argentino de MerloBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Camioneros win44%

Draw32%

Argentino de Merlo win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 40

VenueHugo Moyano

Line-ups

Deportivo Camioneros

Argentino de Merlo

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Camioneros

Argentino de Merlo

8Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

Last match: 11 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
15	Argentino de Merlo	39	−7	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Deportivo Camioneros

Formation not confirmed

1 H. Ramirez

2 S. Diaz

3 E. Del Bianco

4 M. Coronel

5 S. Nelle

6 N. Sainz

7 M. De Jesus

8 P. Lopez

9 F. Aguirre

10 L. U. Brizuela

11 F. Moyano

Coach · Axel Clazon

Substitutes

13 · G. Pusula

14 · F. Rebussone

15 · L. Perez Godoy

16 · G. Lopez

17 · N. Moyano

18 · I. Huguenet

19 · R. Acosta

20 · L. Silva

12 · R. Ferrario

Argentino de Merlo

Formation not confirmed

1 G. Oviedo

2 J. Cacace

3 B. Maceri

4 C. Marcial

5 L. Romero

6 V. Lopez

7 A. Salvador

8 D. Ursino

9 D. E. Aguirre

10 G. Scisci

11 M. Gomez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Bardagi

13 · F. Lopez

15 · L. Paz Sierra

16 · C. Medina

17 · T. Jerez

18 · T. Candelaresi

19 · F. Maldonado

20 · F. Sellecchia

14 · J. Rodriguez

Our number · deportivo camioneros winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

44% The market50%

Us44%

~~Market~~50%

We make Deportivo Camioneros a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 50%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Camioneros v Argentino de Merlo~~1.25 – 0.84

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 6 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 64 v 44~~6 v 15

~~The market · Deportivo Camioneros win~~50% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Camioneros win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 50% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Camioneros win	44%	50%	−6
Draw	32%	30%	+2
Argentino de Merlo win	23%	20%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	35%	38%	−3
Both teams to score	42%	41%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	63%	62%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	16%	20%	−4
Deportivo Camioneros or draw	77%	80%	−3
Deportivo Camioneros clean sheet	43%	–	–
Argentino de Merlo clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.5%

0123450 14.1 8.7 4.4 1 13.7 14.5 5.4 2 9.6 8.0 3.4 3 4.0 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Camioneros down, Argentino de Merlo across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,204 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 429 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 0.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Camioneros at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Argentino de Merlo away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.25 goals for Deportivo Camioneros, 0.84 for Argentino de Merlo. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~0.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~ARG 0–0 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 6 Sept

DEPORTIVO CAMIONEROS

WLLLLD1–0 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 1–1

ARGENTINO DE MERLO

LLWLLL0–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	+18	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
8	Real Pilar	39	+3	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	−4	52
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	−4	50
12	Dock Sud	39	−3	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45
15	Argentino de Merlo	39	−7	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
17	Liniers	39	−8	44
18	Brown DE Adrogue	39	−12	42
19	Flandria	39	−13	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41
21	UAI Urquiza	39	−13	38
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16