Deportivo Armenio v Argentino Quilmes prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 22:08

Deportivo Armenio 0–1 Argentino Quilmes DEPORTIVO ARMENIO WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Deportivo Armenio win~~44%

~~The market said~~46%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.920

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.926

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 14 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Deportivo Armenio win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Deportivo Armenio 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–34–22
1′KICK-OFF Deportivo Armenio v Argentino Quilmes
28′🟨 YELLOW · 27' Deportivo Armenio
33′THE CALL SWINGS · 33' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Deportivo Armenio win 40%)
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Argentino Quilmes
42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Deportivo Armenio win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
45′Argentino Quilmes score on 44′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 9–24–67
45′⚽ GOAL · 44' Deportivo Armenio 0–1 Argentino Quilmes
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Deportivo Armenio win: 44% at kick-off, 9% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Argentino Quilmes win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 47%)
45′HALF-TIME Deportivo Armenio 0–1 Argentino Quilmes
46′We said Deportivo Armenio at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 0–1 · 8–24–67
46′SECOND HALF Deportivo Armenio 0–1 Argentino Quilmes
47′The goal count is tracking the 1.9 we expected. 0–1 · 8–24–68
62′We said Deportivo Armenio at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–1 · 4–21–75
62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Argentino Quilmes
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Deportivo Armenio win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+7' Argentino Quilmes
FTFULL TIME Deportivo Armenio 0–1 Argentino Quilmes
FTDeportivo Armenio 0–1 Argentino Quilmes · Deportivo Armenio win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Deportivo Armenio are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Deportivo Armenio 44%, draw 34%, Argentino Quilmes 22%. Over 2.5 goals 30%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Deportivo Armenio v Argentino QuilmesBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Deportivo Armenio win44%

Draw34%

Argentino Quilmes win22%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:30

RoundMatchday 41

VenueArmenia Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Deportivo Armenio

Argentino Quilmes

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Deportivo Armenio	40	+4	62
18	Argentino Quilmes	40	−8	44

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · deportivo armenio winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

44% The market46%

Us44%

~~Market~~46%

We make Deportivo Armenio a 44% chance to win. The market has them at 46%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.2–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Deportivo Armenio v Argentino Quilmes~~1.18 – 0.75

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept~~W4 D2 L0 · W1 D4 L1

~~Table places · points 62 v 44~~7 v 18

~~The market · Deportivo Armenio win~~46% · ours 44%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Deportivo Armenio win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 46% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Deportivo Armenio win	44%	46%	−2
Draw	34%	32%	+2
Argentino Quilmes win	22%	22%	0
Over 2.5 goals	30%	32%	−2
Both teams to score	38%	38%	0
Over 1.5 goals	59%	56%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	13%	16%	−3
Deportivo Armenio or draw	78%	78%	0
Deportivo Armenio clean sheet	47%	–	–
Argentino Quilmes clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 16.5%

0123450 16.5 9.2 4.1 1 15.3 14.4 4.8 2 10.0 7.5 2.8 3 4.0 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Deportivo Armenio down, Argentino Quilmes across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,215 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.0% of games this season, across 440 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Deportivo Armenio at home: 0.67 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). Argentino Quilmes away: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.18 goals for Deportivo Armenio, 0.75 for Argentino Quilmes. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~9 of 10

~~Last meetings~~ARG 1–1 DEP · DEP 1–2 ARG · ARG 1–1 DEP · ARG 1–1 DEP

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 12 Sept

DEPORTIVO ARMENIO

WWWWDD1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 0–0

ARGENTINO QUILMES

WDDDDL1–0 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	40	+33	78
2	Arsenal Sarandi	40	+27	73
3	Sportivo Italiano	40	+18	69
4	Talleres Remedios	40	+16	68
5	Deportivo Camioneros	40	+15	67
6	Villa Dalmine	40	+12	65
7	Deportivo Armenio	40	+4	62
8	Real Pilar	40	+3	62
9	Comunicaciones	40	+5	57
10	Deportivo Laferrere	40	−3	55
11	San Martín Burzaco	40	−4	51
12	Villa San Carlos	40	−3	50
13	Deportivo Merlo	40	−14	48
14	Dock Sud	40	−4	47
15	Liniers	40	−8	45
16	Flandria	40	−12	45
17	Argentino de Merlo	40	−8	44
18	Argentino Quilmes	40	−8	44
19	Brown DE Adrogue	40	−12	43
20	Defensores Unidos	40	−7	42
21	UAI Urquiza	40	−13	39
22	Ituzaingó	40	−37	17