Defensores Unidos v Deportivo Armenio prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Defensores Unidos 0–0 Deportivo Armenio DRAW · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said a draw~~36%

~~The market said~~35%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.624

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.649

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said a draw at 36%.
1′Little has changed for our model: the draw 36% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 30–36–34
1′KICK-OFF Defensores Unidos v Deportivo Armenio
34′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Deportivo Armenio
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 46% now
42′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 48%. 0–0 · 25–48–28
45′HALF-TIME Defensores Unidos 0–0 Deportivo Armenio
46′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 50%. 0–0 · 24–50–27
46′SECOND HALF Defensores Unidos 0–0 Deportivo Armenio
54′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 55%. 0–0 · 21–55–24
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 56% now
61′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 60%. 0–0 · 19–60–21
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Deportivo Armenio
66′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 65%. 0–0 · 17–65–18
66′SUBSTITUTION · 55' Defensores Unidos · On: T. Girard · Off: M. Rapetti
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Defensores Unidos
67′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 67' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 66% now
71′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 0–0 · 14–70–16
75′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–0 · 12–75–13
76′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 76' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 77% now
79′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 81%. 0–0 · 9–81–10
83′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 0–0 · 6–87–7
83′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 83' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 87% now
85′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–0 · 5–90–5
91′We said the draw at 36% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–0 · 2–95–3
91′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Defensores Unidos · On: B. Carboni · Off: D. Salvo
91′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Defensores Unidos · On: H. Tello · Off: A. Sombra
91′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Deportivo Armenio · On: J. Guenzani · Off: N. Herrera Jonathan
91′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Deportivo Armenio · On: C. Gomez · Off: D. Barrionuevo
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90+2' Draw: 36% at kick-off, 96% now
93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Deportivo Armenio
FTFULL TIME Defensores Unidos 0–0 Deportivo Armenio
FTDefensores Unidos 0–0 Deportivo Armenio · Draw: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

A draw is the likeliest result.

The Pitchside prediction: Defensores Unidos 30%, draw 36%, Deportivo Armenio 34%. Over 2.5 goals 29%, both teams to score 38%.

The AI’s read on Defensores Unidos v Deportivo ArmenioBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Defensores Unidos win30%

Draw36%

Deportivo Armenio win34%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 40

VenueEstadio Gigante de Villa Fox

Line-ups

Defensores Unidos

Deportivo Armenio

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Defensores Unidos

Deportivo Armenio

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
20	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Defensores Unidos

Formation not confirmed

1 F. Henricot

2 J. Lopez

3 M. Rapetti

4 M. N. Alarcon

5 A. Baigorria

6 F. Suarez

7 A. Sombra

8 K. Redondo

9 D. Salvo

10 M. Gimenez

11 L. Olivera

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · F. Salerno

13 · S. Iribarne

14 · T. Ferreyra

15 · Z. Gomez

16 · H. Tello

17 · T. Girard

18 · B. Carboni

19 · S. Patroni

20 · S. Herrera

Deportivo Armenio

Formation not confirmed

1 N. Nistal

2 F. Marchesini

3 N. Mosca

4 B. Ortiz

5 F. Tello

6 J. Echeverria

7 T. Suanez

8 F. Almanza

9 L. Pellegrino

10 D. Barrionuevo

11 N. Herrera Jonathan

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · J. Mugica

13 · E. Aguirre

14 · S. Avalos

15 · C. Gomez

16 · R. Gerez

17 · J. Guenzani

18 · S. Lagomarsino

19 · J. Brandan

20 · L. Palma

Our number · drawFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

36% The market35%

Us36%

~~Market~~35%

We make the draw a 36% chance. The market has it at 35%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Defensores Unidos v Deportivo Armenio~~0.89 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept~~W2 D2 L2 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 41 v 61~~20 v 7

~~The market · Draw~~35% · ours 36%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Draw The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 35% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Defensores Unidos win	30%	27%	+3
Draw	36%	35%	+1
Deportivo Armenio win	34%	38%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	29%	30%	−1
Both teams to score	38%	37%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	57%	53%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	12%	14%	−2
Defensores Unidos or draw	66%	62%	+4
Defensores Unidos clean sheet	38%	–	–
Deportivo Armenio clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 17.4%

0123450 17.4 13.4 7.3 2.4 1 12.1 14.9 6.4 2.1 2 6.1 5.9 2.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Defensores Unidos down, Deportivo Armenio across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,204 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 429 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Defensores Unidos at home: 1.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Deportivo Armenio away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.89 goals for Defensores Unidos, 0.97 for Deportivo Armenio. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DEP 3–0 DEF · DEP 0–1 DEF · DEF 0–1 DEP · DEP 3–1 DEF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 5 Sept

DEFENSORES UNIDOS

DWLWDL0–0 · 3–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–1

DEPORTIVO ARMENIO

DWWWWD0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	+18	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
8	Real Pilar	39	+3	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	−4	52
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	−4	50
12	Dock Sud	39	−3	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45
15	Argentino de Merlo	39	−7	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
17	Liniers	39	−8	44
18	Brown DE Adrogue	39	−12	42
19	Flandria	39	−13	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41
21	UAI Urquiza	39	−13	38
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16