Comunicaciones v Brown DE Adrogue prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:01

Comunicaciones 0–0 Brown DE Adrogue COMUNICACIONES WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Comunicaciones win~~41%

~~The market said~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.644

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.704

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay7 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Comunicaciones win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Comunicaciones was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 41–36–23
1′KICK-OFF Comunicaciones v Brown DE Adrogue
27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Comunicaciones win 36%)
43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Comunicaciones
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Comunicaciones win: 41% at kick-off, 31% now
45′HALF-TIME Comunicaciones 0–0 Brown DE Adrogue
46′SECOND HALF Comunicaciones 0–0 Brown DE Adrogue
49′We said Comunicaciones at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 29–52–18
55′🟨 YELLOW · 55' Brown DE Adrogue
60′We said Comunicaciones at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 24–60–16
62′🟨 YELLOW · 61' Brown DE Adrogue
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 66' Comunicaciones win: 41% at kick-off, 21% now
66′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Comunicaciones · On: J. Villalba · Off: C. Puigdellivol
69′We said Comunicaciones at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 19–69–12
76′We said Comunicaciones at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 14–77–9
79′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 79' Comunicaciones win: 41% at kick-off, 11% now
81′We said Comunicaciones at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 9–84–6
88′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Brown DE Adrogue
89′We said Comunicaciones at 41%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–93–3
90′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Comunicaciones · On: L. Vico · Off: F. Fabello Corrected
91′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Comunicaciones · On: L. Vico · Off: F. Fabello
91′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Brown DE Adrogue · On: M. Pieres · Off: L. Baldunciel
91′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Comunicaciones · On: R. Figueroa · Off: V. Quevedo
91′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Comunicaciones · On: I. Carruega · Off: C. Vazquez
92′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Brown DE Adrogue · On: V. Galeano · Off: N. Meaurio
92′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Brown DE Adrogue · On: M. Sproat · Off: M. Noble
92′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Brown DE Adrogue · On: J. Silva · Off: A. Castano
92′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Comunicaciones · On: E. Ramirez · Off: F. Di Lena
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Comunicaciones win: 41% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Comunicaciones 0–0 Brown DE Adrogue
FTComunicaciones 0–0 Brown DE Adrogue · Comunicaciones win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Comunicaciones are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Comunicaciones 41%, draw 35%, Brown DE Adrogue 23%. Over 2.5 goals 27%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on Comunicaciones v Brown DE AdrogueBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Comunicaciones win41%

Draw35%

Brown DE Adrogue win23%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 40

VenueAlfredo Ramos stadium

Line-ups

Comunicaciones

Brown DE Adrogue

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Comunicaciones

Brown DE Adrogue

7Days since last match5

Last match: 10 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

Last match: 12 Oct · Primera B Metropolitana

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
18	Brown DE Adrogue	39	−12	42

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Comunicaciones

Formation not confirmed

1 E. Bacher

2 F. Fabello

3 R. Compagnucci

4 G. Jaque

5 C. Puigdellivol

6 F. Mattia

7 V. Quevedo

8 C. Vazquez

9 J. Heidenreich

10 J. Ibanez

11 F. Di Lena

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · G. Yacaruso

13 · G. Zabala

14 · R. Figueroa

15 · T. Porto

16 · I. Carruega

17 · J. Villalba

18 · L. Britez

19 · E. Ramirez

20 · L. Vico

Brown DE Adrogue

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Giovini

2 L. Irusta

4 J. Bogado

6 C. Aguirre

3 L. Cesare

8 A. Castano

5 E. Robles

10 M. Noble

11 B. Lopez

7 L. Baldunciel

9 N. Meaurio

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Wysocki

13 · M. Pieres

14 · A. Ortiz

15 · J. Silva

16 · T. Patrizio

17 · F. Ferrario

18 · M. Sproat

19 · M. Cerulo

20 · V. Galeano

Our number · comunicaciones winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 03:45 · locked at kick-off

41% The market44%

Us41%

~~Market~~44%

We make Comunicaciones a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Comunicaciones v Brown DE Adrogue~~1.08 – 0.74

~~Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 6 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 56 v 42~~9 v 18

~~The market · Comunicaciones win~~44% · ours 41%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Comunicaciones win The market, margin stripped

Published at 42%, 41% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Comunicaciones win	41%	44%	−3
Draw	35%	32%	+3
Brown DE Adrogue win	23%	24%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	27%	32%	−5
Both teams to score	36%	39%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	56%	57%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	11%	15%	−4
Comunicaciones or draw	77%	76%	+1
Comunicaciones clean sheet	48%	–	–
Brown DE Adrogue clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 18.2%

0123450 18.2 10.4 4.4 1 15.9 14.4 4.7 2 9.4 6.9 2.5 3 3.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Comunicaciones down, Brown DE Adrogue across0–5 goals a side shown (99.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,204 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 429 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Comunicaciones at home: 1.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Brown DE Adrogue away: 0.17 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.08 goals for Comunicaciones, 0.74 for Brown DE Adrogue. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BRO 1–2 COM · BRO 0–1 COM · COM 2–0 BRO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana this season · since 6 Sept

COMUNICACIONES

WDWDDD1–0 · 2–2 · 2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0

BROWN DE ADROGUE

DLDWDW0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	+18	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
8	Real Pilar	39	+3	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	−4	52
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	−4	50
12	Dock Sud	39	−3	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45
15	Argentino de Merlo	39	−7	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
17	Liniers	39	−8	44
18	Brown DE Adrogue	39	−12	42
19	Flandria	39	−13	42
20	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41
21	UAI Urquiza	39	−13	38
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16