Brown DE Adrogue v Dock Sud prediction · Primera B Metropolitana

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 21:35

Brown DE Adrogue 1–0 Dock Sud BROWN DE ADROGUE WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Brown DE Adrogue win~~38%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.581

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.516

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Brown DE Adrogue win at 38%.
1′Much as we predicted: Brown DE Adrogue was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 40% now. 0–0 · 40–31–29
1′KICK-OFF Brown DE Adrogue v Dock Sud
6′Much as we predicted: Brown DE Adrogue was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–29
7′Much as we predicted: Brown DE Adrogue was 38% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 39–32–29
20′🟨 YELLOW · 21' Dock Sud
44′🟥 RED CARD · 45' Dock Sud
45′🟥 RED CARD · 45' Dock Sud
45′🟥 RED CARD · 45' G. Gualtieri · Dock Sud
45′SECOND HALF Brown DE Adrogue 0–0 Dock Sud
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dock Sud · On: F. Otero · Off: H. Perrone
51′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Brown DE Adrogue · On: B. Baez · Off: N. Meaurio
61′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Brown DE Adrogue · On: B. Baez · Off: N. Meaurio
62′🟨 YELLOW · 21' G. Gualtieri · Dock Sud
62′🟨 YELLOW · 45' G. Gualtieri · Dock Sud
62′🟥 RED CARD · 45' G. Gualtieri · Dock Sud
62′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Brown DE Adrogue · On: B. Baez · Off: N. Meaurio
62′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Dock Sud · On: F. Otero · Off: H. Perrone
63′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Dock Sud · On: D. Arias · Off: S. Vivas
63′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Brown DE Adrogue · On: M. Sproat · Off: M. Noble
66′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Brown DE Adrogue
69′🟨 YELLOW · 70' Brown DE Adrogue
75′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Brown DE Adrogue
79′⚽ GOAL · 80' Brown DE Adrogue 0–0 Dock Sud
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Brown DE Adrogue 1–0 Dock Sud
84′⚽ GOAL · 80' Brown DE Adrogue 1–0 Dock Sud · B. Baez
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Dock Sud · On: O. Eichhorn · Off: V. Venetucci
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Dock Sud · On: T. Villordo · Off: T. Chamorro
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Brown DE Adrogue · On: J. Silva · Off: B. Lopez
86′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Brown DE Adrogue · On: J. Silva · Off: B. Lopez
90′🟥 RED CARD · 90' Brown DE Adrogue
92′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Brown DE Adrogue
FTFULL TIME Brown DE Adrogue 1–0 Dock Sud
FTBrown DE Adrogue 1–0 Dock Sud · Brown DE Adrogue win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

Brown DE Adrogue win38%

Draw34%

Dock Sud win28%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 19:00

VenueEstadio Lorenzo Arandilla

Line-ups

Brown DE Adrogue

Dock Sud

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Brown DE Adrogue

Dock Sud

7Days since last match9

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Dock Sud	38	−2	47
20	Brown DE Adrogue	38	−13	39

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Brown DE Adrogue

Formation not confirmed

1 S. Giovini

4 J. Bogado

2 L. Sanchez

6 C. Aguirre

3 B. Guerrero

8 A. Castano

5 E. Robles

10 M. Noble

11 B. Lopez

7 L. Baldunciel

9 N. Meaurio

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · M. Wysocki

13 · L. Irusta

14 · L. Cesare

15 · J. Silva

16 · A. Gonzalez

17 · F. Ferrario

18 · M. Sproat

19 · B. Baez

20 · V. Galeano

Dock Sud

Formation not confirmed

1 T. Tello

4 N. Guerrero

2 A. Avalos

6 N. Lopez

3 A. Barreiro

8 H. Perrone

5 T. Chamorro

10 G. Gomez

7 V. Venetucci

11 G. Gualtieri

9 S. Vivas

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · E. Cuenca

13 · M. Gauna

14 · F. Otero

15 · J. Obregon

16 · R. Perez

17 · O. Eichhorn

18 · D. Arias

19 · B. Arriola

20 · T. Villordo

Our number · brown de adrogue winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 18:50 · locked at kick-off

38% The market42%

Us38%

~~Market~~42%

We make Brown DE Adrogue a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–0.9.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · brown de adrogue win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 42% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Brown DE Adrogue win	38%	42%	−4
Draw	34%	33%	+2
Dock Sud win	28%	26%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	32%	33%	−1
Both teams to score	41%	41%	0
Over 1.5 goals	61%	58%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	14%	17%	−3
Brown DE Adrogue or draw	72%	74%	−2
Brown DE Adrogue clean sheet	41%	–	–
Dock Sud clean sheet	34%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–0 at 15.7%

0123450 15.7 10.6 5.5 1 13.2 15.0 5.9 2 8.1 7.2 3.2 3 3.0 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Brown DE Adrogue down, Dock Sud across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,202 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 32.1% of games this season, across 427 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Brown DE Adrogue at home: 1.17 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Dock Sud away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.09 goals for Brown DE Adrogue, 0.90 for Dock Sud. Most likely score 0–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~DOC 0–1 BRO · DOC 1–3 BRO · BRO 1–1 DOC

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana

BROWN DE ADROGUE

DDLDWD1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–0 · 0–0

DOCK SUD

WLLDWL2–0 · 0–1 · 0–3 · 0–0 · 2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	39	+27	72
3	Sportivo Italiano	39	+18	68
4	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
5	Villa Dalmine	39	+15	65
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Deportivo Armenio	39	+4	61
8	Real Pilar	38	+4	61
9	Comunicaciones	39	+5	56
10	Deportivo Laferrere	39	−4	52
11	San Martín Burzaco	39	−4	50
12	Dock Sud	38	−2	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Deportivo Merlo	39	−15	45
15	Argentino de Merlo	39	−7	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	39	−7	44
17	Liniers	39	−8	44
18	Flandria	39	−13	42
19	Defensores Unidos	39	−7	41
20	Brown DE Adrogue	38	−13	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	−14	35
22	Ituzaingó	39	−37	16