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Arsenal Sarandi v San Martín Burzaco

Arsenal Sarandi

3–1Full time

San Martín Burzaco

Primera B Metropolitana · SAT 10 OCT · Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Arsenal Sarandi 3–1 San Martín Burzaco ARSENAL SARANDI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Arsenal Sarandi win~~50%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.375

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.215

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Arsenal Sarandi win at 50%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Arsenal Sarandi 50% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–28–20
1′KICK-OFF Arsenal Sarandi v San Martín Burzaco
9′Little has changed for our model: Arsenal Sarandi 50% before kick-off, 50% now. 0–0 · 50–29–20
35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Arsenal Sarandi
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' San Martín Burzaco
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Arsenal Sarandi 0–1 San Martín Burzaco
45′HALF-TIME Arsenal Sarandi 0–1 San Martín Burzaco
45′🟨 YELLOW · 29' N. Brienzo · Arsenal Sarandi
45′🟨 YELLOW · 37' E. Zagert · San Martín Burzaco
45′⚽ GOAL · 49' Arsenal Sarandi 0–1 San Martín Burzaco · R. Velazquez
46′SECOND HALF Arsenal Sarandi 0–1 San Martín Burzaco
47′⚽ GOAL · 47' Arsenal Sarandi 1–1 San Martín Burzaco
48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' San Martín Burzaco
49′🟨 YELLOW · 29' N. Brienzo · Arsenal Sarandi
49′🟨 YELLOW · 37' E. Zagert · San Martín Burzaco
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Arsenal Sarandi 1–1 San Martín Burzaco · R. Velazquez
49′⚽ GOAL · 47' Arsenal Sarandi 1–1 San Martín Burzaco
49′🟨 YELLOW · 47' San Martín Burzaco
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Arsenal Sarandi 2–1 San Martín Burzaco
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Arsenal Sarandi 3–1 San Martín Burzaco
64′🟨 YELLOW · 64' San Martín Burzaco
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' San Martín Burzaco · On: N. Barrera · Off: A. Siliman Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' San Martín Burzaco · On: R. Peralta · Off: L. Lezcano Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 66' San Martín Burzaco · On: M. Muzzio · Off: K. Denis Corrected
75′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Arsenal Sarandi · On: A. Vega · Off: M. Del Col
79′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Arsenal Sarandi · On: J. Goncebat · Off: L. Franco Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 76' San Martín Burzaco · On: E. Treppo · Off: E. Zagert
81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' San Martín Burzaco
89′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Arsenal Sarandi · On: J. Ochoa · Off: M. Sosa
89′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Arsenal Sarandi · On: U. La Roza · Off: N. Frascone
FTFULL TIME Arsenal Sarandi 3–1 San Martín Burzaco
FTArsenal Sarandi 3–1 San Martín Burzaco · Arsenal Sarandi win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Arsenal Sarandi win50%

Draw30%

San Martín Burzaco win19%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Estadio Julio Humberto Grondona

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Arsenal Sarandi

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Lobelos

2 N. Brienzo

3 D. Perez

4 A. Payes

5 J. Vila

6 I. Peralta

7 N. Frascone

8 M. Lucero

9 L. Franco

10 M. Sosa

11 M. Del Col

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Pezzini

13 · R. Caceres

14 · A. Antilef

15 · A. Vega

16 · J. Goncebat

17 · U. La Roza

18 · D. Cabral

19 · E. Wrubel

20 · J. Ochoa

San Martín Burzaco

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Gagliardo

4 L. Lezcano

2 D. Orellana

6 R. Lazarev

3 A. Siliman

8 K. Denis

5 R. Gonzalez

10 R. Velazquez

11 N. A. Gauna

7 E. Zagert

9 B. Chavez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Marchesi

13 · J. Tobon

14 · N. Barrera

15 · L. Geneiro

16 · M. Escudero

17 · R. Peralta

18 · M. Muzzio

19 · E. Treppo

20 · C. Cuenca

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Arsenal Sarandi

Formation not confirmed

1 J. Lobelos

2 N. Brienzo

3 D. Perez

4 A. Payes

5 J. Vila

6 I. Peralta

7 N. Frascone

8 M. Lucero

9 L. Franco

10 M. Sosa

11 M. Del Col

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Pezzini

13 · R. Caceres

14 · A. Antilef

15 · A. Vega

16 · J. Goncebat

17 · U. La Roza

18 · D. Cabral

19 · E. Wrubel

20 · J. Ochoa

San Martín Burzaco

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Gagliardo

4 L. Lezcano

2 D. Orellana

6 R. Lazarev

3 A. Siliman

8 K. Denis

5 R. Gonzalez

10 R. Velazquez

11 N. A. Gauna

7 E. Zagert

9 B. Chavez

Coach · –

Substitutes

12 · N. Marchesi

13 · J. Tobon

14 · N. Barrera

15 · L. Geneiro

16 · M. Escudero

17 · R. Peralta

18 · M. Muzzio

19 · E. Treppo

20 · C. Cuenca

Our number · arsenal sarandi winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

50% The market63%

Us50%

~~Market~~63%

We make Arsenal Sarandi a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–0.8.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · arsenal sarandi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 55% to 63% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal Sarandi win	50%	63%	−12
Draw	30%	24%	+7
San Martín Burzaco win	19%	14%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	37%	47%	−10
Both teams to score	42%	44%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	65%	70%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	18%	28%	−10
Arsenal Sarandi or draw	81%	86%	−5
Arsenal Sarandi clean sheet	47%	–	–
San Martín Burzaco clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.4%

0123450 13.1 7.2 3.4 1 14.4 13.7 4.7 2 11.2 8.5 3.3 3 5.3 4.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal Sarandi down, San Martín Burzaco across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 2,195 Primera B Metropolitana matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Primera B Metropolitana matches have gone over 2.5 in 31.9% of games this season, across 420 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal Sarandi at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). San Martín Burzaco away: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Arsenal Sarandi, 0.77 for San Martín Burzaco. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~SAN 2–0 ARS

Form · last six in Primera B Metropolitana

ARSENAL SARANDI

WWWLWL3–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 0–1

SAN MARTÍN BURZACO

LDWWLW0–2 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Excursionistas	39	+33	77
2	Arsenal Sarandi	38	+25	69
3	Talleres Remedios	39	+17	68
4	Sportivo Italiano	38	+17	65
5	Villa Dalmine	38	+15	64
6	Deportivo Camioneros	39	+14	64
7	Real Pilar	38	+4	61
8	Deportivo Armenio	38	+4	60
9	Comunicaciones	38	+5	55
10	Deportivo Laferrere	38	−4	51
11	San Martín Burzaco	38	−2	50
12	Dock Sud	38	−2	47
13	Villa San Carlos	39	−6	47
14	Argentino de Merlo	38	−6	44
15	Deportivo Merlo	38	−15	44
16	Argentino Quilmes	38	−7	43
17	Liniers	38	−8	43
18	Defensores Unidos	38	−6	41
19	Brown DE Adrogue	38	−13	39
20	Flandria	38	−14	39
21	UAI Urquiza	38	−14	35
22	Ituzaingó	38	−37	15